Subject: election-law_gl-digest V1 #130
From: owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu (election-law_gl-digest)
Date: 2/4/2002, 6:00 PM
To: election-law_gl-digest@majordomo.lls.edu

election-law_gl-digest    Monday, February 4 2002    Volume 01 : Number 130




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Date: Mon, 04 Feb 2002 08:14:45 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rick.hasen@lls.edu>
Subject: Idaho Legislature Repeals Term Limit Law

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Rick Hasen
Professor of Law and William M. Rains Fellow
Loyola Law School
919 South Albany Street
Los Angeles, CA  90015-1211
(213)736-1466 - voice
(213)380-3769 - fax
rick.hasen@lls.edu
http://www.lls.edu/academics/faculty/hasen.html


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<h2>Idaho Legislature Repeals Term Limit Law</h2>
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<NYT_BYLINE  version=3D"1.0" type=3D" "><h5>By MICHAEL JANOFSKY</h5></NYT=
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<NYT_TEXT><font class=3Dtsa><P><IMG SRC=3D"http://graphics.nytimes.com/im=
ages/dropcap/i.gif" ALIGN=3D"left" ALT=3D"I">daho yesterday became the fi=
rst state to repeal its term limit laws, which voters had approved in 199=
4 and affirmed in three elections since then.</p>
<P> The change came as both chambers of the Legislature mustered the two-=
thirds votes needed to override Gov. Dirk Kempthorne's veto on Thursday, =
when Mr. Kempthorne said, "It's a question of process, and the will of th=
e voters cannot be ignored and must be protected."</p>
<P> Even so, opponents of the limits held on to all but one vote in handi=
ng Mr. Kempthorne, a Republican, a rare defeat that lawmakers on the winn=
ing side hailed as a victory for the state.</p>
<P> "We're very pleased with the outcome, for sure," said Speaker Bruce N=
ewcomb, a Republican, who blamed heavy out-of-state money for influencing=
 the vote that established term limits in the state. "We were a cheap sta=
te to buy; it was not in the public interest."</p>
<P> Idaho became the fourth state since 1997 to lose term limit laws, lea=
ving 17 with them. In the other three =97 Massachusetts, Oregon and Washi=
ngton =97 term limit measures were invalidated by the states' Supreme Cou=
rts. The issue is currently before the Montana Supreme Court.</p>
<P> There have been efforts in many states that adopted term limits to re=
peal them. Opponents of the laws have said they create legislatures fille=
d with inexperienced lawmakers dominated by savvy lobbyists. In addition,=
 many of those lawmakers have chafed at the very restrictions that put so=
me of them in office.</p>

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		<P> Several members of Congress who were elected after promising to ser=
ve only a limited number of terms have changed their minds. Most prominen=
t among them is Representative George Nethercutt, a Washington Republican=
 who, in 1994, defeated Speaker Thomas S. Foley in a stunning upset large=
ly attributed to a sense that, after 30 years in Congress, Mr. Foley had =
served too long.</p>
<P> "I don't know if it's a trend," said Jenny Drage Bowser, an analyst w=
ith the National Conference of State Legislatures. "I wouldn't have said =
that before what happened in Idaho. But the term limit movement is defini=
tely losing momentum."</p>
<P> In 1990, as voter frustration with career politicians gained momentum=
, California, Colorado and Oklahoma became the first states to pass laws =
that capped the number of terms that local, state and national lawmakers =
could serve. Thirteen other states set similar limits before the United S=
tates Supreme Court ruled, 5 to 4, in 1995 that only a federal constituti=
onal amendment could restrict the number of terms served by members of Co=
ngress.</p>
<P> Idaho was an early subscriber to the movement as voters passed the in=
itial measure with 59.3 percent of the vote in 1994, the year Republicans=
 won control of Congress. Term limits were part of the Contract With Amer=
ica, the Republican Party's informal platform in those off-year elections=
=2E Idaho voters endorsed term limits again in 1996, 1998 and 2000, altho=
ugh by lesser majorities.</p>
<P> But Mr. Newcomb, a 16-year member of the Legislature, said he was con=
vinced that voters had been had by outside forces because most of the mon=
ey spent on the term limit campaign in 1994 was from out-of-state.</p>
<P> "There was never a real debate," he said. "They had no opposition."</=
p>
<P> In explaining his veto, Mr. Kempthorne, whose first term ends this ye=
ar, did not say he necessarily opposed term limits, only that he was acti=
ng in support of public sentiments.</p>
<P> "I cannot say to the people who elected me to office that I respect t=
heir decision in my case but reject their collective judgment =97 on the =
very same ballot =97 when they affirmed their support for term limits," M=
r. Kempthorne said.</p>
<P> Stacie Rumenap, executive director of U.S. Term Limits, an organizati=
on that works to pass term limit laws, took a harsher view of development=
s in Idaho, saying: "Today's vote by the Idaho Legislature is a slap in t=
he face to all Idaho voters. The arrogance of the Legislature to repeal a=
n issue that has been supported by four separate votes is unconscionable.=
"</p>
<P> Mr. Newcomb said he expected supporters of term limits to muster anot=
her ballot initiative for this November's election. If it passed, he said=
, it would not take effect until 2004, giving opponents plenty of time to=
 knock it out again.</p>
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- --------------A7DB401D684FB449CC565FF3--

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 04 Feb 2002 17:17:41 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rick.hasen@lls.edu>
Subject: message from Morgan Kousser re: voting rights statistical techniques

J. Morgan Kousser wrote:

Readers of this list may be interested in two special issues of
Historical Methods, dated Summer and Fall, 2001, entitled "Evaluating
Ecoogical Inference."   The papers are entitled:

"Ecological Inference from Goodman to King," by J. Morgan Kousser;

"Comparing Individual-Level Voting Returns with Aggregates: A Historical
Appraisal of the King Solution," by Paul Bourke, Donald DeBats, and
Thomas Phelan;

"Estimating Levels and Modeling Determinants of Black and White Voter
Turnout in the South, 1880 to 1912," by Kent Redding and David R. James;

"Unlocking the Aggregate Data Past   Which Keys Fit?" by Bradley
Palmquist;

and "Understanding King's Ecological Inference Model: A
Method-of-Moments Approach," by Jeffrey B. Lewis.

        The articles in these special issues consider a wide range of
data, comparing results produced by King's recently-developed
"ecological inference" (EI) technique to those of Goodman's older
"ecological regression" (ER) method, sometimes benefitting from more
direct evidence of individual behavior against which to match findings
from both procedures.  The conclusions are interesting, suggestive, even
surprising.
        Kousser begins with a detailed, though not statistically
rigorous introduction, perhaps suitable for graduate or advanced
undergraduate student courses, to the chief methods that have recently
been used to analyze data that is only available in aggregated form --
the method of bounds, homogeneous areas, ER, and EI..  Each is explained
and its pros and cons considered, employing the hotly-contested 1896
gubernatorial election in North Carolina as an empirical focal point.
In addition, the "neighborhood model," proposed as a reductio ad
absurdum of ecological inference, is laid out and assessed.  Should EI
entirely replace ER at this point?  Is the whole attempt to recover
evidence of individual behavior from aggregated data so obviously
hopeless that it should be abandoned?
        Bourke, De Bats, and Phelan study the way that 1840 presidential
voters in Fayette and Sangamon counties, Illinois, voted in the 1844
presidential race.  Since they have "poll book" data showing how
individuals actually voted in the 20 precincts in the two counties, they
can test the true pattern of stability and change against the estimates
generated by the two methods.  Though both models get fairly close to
reality, Goodman's technique slightly bests King's.
        Redding and James apply the same two models to the example that
King uses throughout his 1997 book, black and white turnout.  But they
use data from the South in one presidential election for each of the
four decades from 1880 to 1912, finding the estimates of the two methods
broadly similar.  They then use the resulting racial turnout estimates
as dependent variables in analyses of the influence on turnout of
various laws and other factors.  On the basis of their experience with
this analysis, Redding and James offer several practical suggestions on
using EI.
        Palmquist joins Redding and James in offering practical advice
on how to analyze aggregate data to make inferences about individuals.
He also assesses King's claims and the common view within political
science that EI should completely replace ER.  He ends by suggesting
further advances that need to be made.  The data Palmquist uses ranges
from the foreign-born literacy rate in the U.S. in 1910 to the Wallace
vote in the South in the 1968 presidential election to black turnout in
Louisiana in 1991.
        Lewis turns to precinct data from the 301 precincts of the 60th
Assembly (California State House) district in the 1992 general election,
comparing partisan voting with patterns on a rail bond proposition.
Since California preserves and makes public individual ballot images on
propositions and Assembly races, we know how individuals voted in both
(though not which individuals voted each way).  Thus, Lewis can use such
contests to see whether EI predicts reality better than the alternative
of ER or Lewis's own "method of moments" model, and he can assess King's
claim that his method is relatively robust to aggregation bias.

        The papers may be of interest to historians, political
scientists, and voting rights lawyers.  Subscriptions to the journal or
single copies of these issues can be ordered through the publisher,
Heldref Publications, 1-800-365-9753

------------------------------

End of election-law_gl-digest V1 #130
*************************************