Subject: election-law_gl-digest V1 #161
From: owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu (election-law_gl-digest)
Date: 3/13/2002, 7:00 PM
To: election-law_gl-digest@majordomo.lls.edu

election-law_gl-digest    Wednesday, March 13 2002    Volume 01 : Number 161




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Date: Tue, 12 Mar 2002 20:33:16 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rick.hasen@lls.edu>
Subject: Redistricting 2002 Produces No Great Shakeups

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Rick Hasen
Professor of Law and William M. Rains Fellow
Loyola Law School
919 South Albany Street
Los Angeles, CA  90015-1211
(213)736-1466 - voice
(213)380-3769 - fax
rick.hasen@lls.edu
http://www.lls.edu/academics/faculty/hasen.html


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<meta  name=3D"FIRSTPAR" content=3D" The once-a-decade redrawing of the n=
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</td></tr><tr><td align=3D"left" valign=3D"top"> <p></p>&nbsp;<p></p> <NY=
T_DATE><font size=3D"-1"><strong>March 13, 2002</strong></font><br></NYT_=
DATE><NYT_KICKER></NYT_KICKER><NYT_HEADLINE  version=3D"1.0" type=3D" "><=
h2>Redistricting 2002 Produces No Great Shakeups</h2></NYT_HEADLINE><NYT_=
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<NYT_TEXT >

 <P><IMG SRC=3D"http://graphics4.nytimes.com/images/dropcap/w.gif" ALIGN=3D=
"left" ALT=3D"W">ASHINGTON, March 12 &#0151; With Congressional redistric=
ting almost complete, the once-a-decade redrawing of the nation's politic=
al map is turning out to favor incumbents to an unusual degree, making ma=
ny of the House's swing seats into safer territory for one party or the o=
ther.</P> <P> Political analysts say the cautious tilt toward the status =
quo has been driven by the excruciatingly close balance of power in the c=
ountry; a shift of just six seats in the House of Representatives could s=
wing it from Republican control to Democratic. </P> <P> "Because the Hous=
e is so close, the legislatures approached redistricting with this rule o=
f thumb: Do no harm, win our own seats," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor a=
nd publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan election n=
ewsletter.</P> <P> Some states broke the mold, with Michigan and Pennsylv=
ania drawing maps that sharply favor Republicans and Georgia returning th=
e favor on behalf of the Democrats. In Iowa, where a nonpartisan bureau p=
roposes the lines, four House seats were made quite competitive.</P> <P> =
But a number of states, and courts, chose to keep the districts of legion=
s of incumbents intact or even to shore them up with more like-minded vot=
ers. Party control of the nation's state legislatures is also sharply div=
ided, giving neither Republicans nor Democrats a significant edge in the =
overall process. </P> <P> As a result, many political analysts and strate=
gists say that the fierce, multimillion-dollar struggle for control of th=
e House this year will probably come down to 35 to 55 competitive races, =
with only two dozen of them true tossups.</P> <P> Ten years ago, Charles =
E. Cook Jr., editor of The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan chronicle=
 of elections, says, he tracked 121 competitive House races. This year, h=
e has rated only 55 races competitive and expects the number to drop. Thu=
s, for all the intense competition between Republicans and Democrats in W=
ashington, many voters will not see a robust battle of ideas this fall.</=
P> <P> "There's no real opportunity for them to participate in the proces=
s because they are in lopsided districts where there's hardly a challenge=
r who is noticed," Thomas E. Mann, a senior fellow of the Brookings Insti=
tution, said of most voters.</P> <P> While the trend toward fewer competi=
tive House races has been building for decades, political analysts genera=
lly rely on the reconfiguration of House lines every 10 years to provide =
an initial period of ferment and more political opportunity.</P> <P> With=
 lines being redrawn to reflect population changes, openings are made for=
 challengers. New seats are created without incumbents, and some lawmaker=
s must run against each other. The flux can even cause some House members=
 to retire.</P> <P> But with about three-quarters of the states' redistri=
cting plans complete, the process is producing less than the expected uph=
eaval and only a small set of races that could be highly competitive. </P=
<P> One indicator is that so far, only 28 House members are retiring, 1=
8 Republicans and 10 Democrats. In 1992, 64 House members retired, though=
 along with redistricting, the House banking scandal played a role.</P> <=
P> Judging which races are competitive this early in an election year is =
as much art as science, depending on the partisan makeup of districts, th=
e number of open seats, the quality of candidates. New political currents=
 can develop late and substantially change the dynamics of an election. R=
ight now, though, experts call the lack of competitive races significant.=
</P> <P> "One of the patterns you normally see is that at the front end o=
f the decade there's more turnover, more competition and it goes down dur=
ing a decade," Mr. Cook said. "The scary thing is if you start off the de=
cade with a low number."</P> <P> The situation carries disappointments fo=
r both parties, which are locked in furious battle, because power is so c=
losely divided. The House now has 222 Republicans, 211 Democrats and two =
independents.</P> <P> The Republicans had predicted that population chang=
es and the shift of 12 Congressional seats to the Sun Belt would let them=
 cement their majority, gaining 8 to 10 new seats through redistricting. =
Texas, Florida, Arizona and Georgia each gained two seats. California, No=
rth Carolina, Colorado and Nevada picked up one new seat apiece. </P> <P>=
 Republican leaders still say their forecasts will bear out. But most ind=
ependent analysts say Republicans will pick up only a few seats through r=
edistricting alone. Democrats say they fought the Republicans largely to =
a draw on remapping.</P> <P> "The point is, when this is over, this will =
be dead even or close to even," said Representative Martin Frost, Democra=
t of Texas.</P> <P> The Democrats face difficulties of their own. Strateg=
ists say that the comparatively few competitive races mean that the Democ=
rats will have fewer opportunities and little room for error in their que=
st for control of the House.</P> <P> "It gives them an uphill climb," sai=
d Representative Thomas M. Davis III of Virginia, who heads the National =
Republican Congressional Committee.</P> <P> Undaunted, some House Democra=
ts insist that as many as 60 House seats are competitive, giving them a f=
ield large enough to win control.</P> <P> A stark example of the year's t=
rend can be found in California. Democrats have picked up eight seats the=
re since 1996 and were hoping that with a Democratic governor and majorit=
ies in the State Legislature they would surely win more.</P> <P> But to t=
he dismay of some national party strategists, state officials took a cons=
ervative approach. While the state's redistricting plan gave Democrats on=
e new seat and eliminated the seat of a Republican &#0151; Representative=
 Steve Horn, who has announced he will retire &#0151; the plan largely sh=
ored up the existing House districts. As a result, of 53 House races in C=
alifornia, only one is considered competitive, the district where Represe=
ntative Gary A. Condit was recently defeated in a Democratic primary.</P>=
 <P> "If the average Californian doesn't like his congressman, the only o=
ption is to call the moving vans," said Dan Schnur, a Republican strategi=
st.</P> <P> In fact, Representative Ellen O. Tauscher, a Democrat, has no=
 Republican opponent at all, even though Ms. Tauscher first eked out vict=
ory by only 4,000 votes in 1996. After California's redistricting plan sh=
ifted a substantial number of new Democratic rural constituents into her =
district, Republicans basically conceded the race. Ms. Tauscher had a tok=
en primary challenge and faces only a Libertarian candidate in November.<=
/P> <P> "My staff and I were standing in my kitchen and afraid to open a =
bottle of Champagne because we were afraid someone made a mistake," Ms. T=
auscher said of the day the candidates' filing deadline passed. Asked how=
 she felt, she said, "I think the term is stunned."</P> <P> Similarly, We=
st Virginia, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and New Mexico largely protected=
 incumbents through maps drawn by legislatures or the courts. </P> <P> Re=
publicans saw their hopes falter in Texas, the home state of President Bu=
sh, where they once thought they could use their political strength to ma=
ke large gains. When the Legislature could not agree, redistricting was h=
andled by a panel of three federal judges. It protected the incumbents, 1=
7 Democrats and 13 Republicans, and created two seats expected to go Repu=
blican.</P> <P> Still some states bucked the trend. The Michigan map, dra=
wn by the Republican-controlled Legislature, is supposed to help the part=
y gain two new seats and strip Democrats of three. And Pennsylvania could=
 give Republicans two new seats while forcing Democrats to lose four.</P>=
 <P> Democrats returned the favor in Georgia, squeezing out two Republica=
ns and creating the possibility that the party could pick up four new sea=
ts. And Maryland is considering a map that could leave Representative Con=
stance A. Morella, a moderate Republican, highly vulnerable.</P> <P> The =
numbers are not large, but the year has produced some high-profile retire=
ments and primary battles. Representative David E. Bonior of Michigan, th=
e Democrats' House whip, chose to run for governor instead of Congress.</=
P> <P> If the Michigan map survives court challenges, it will force a pri=
mary face-off of Democratic incumbents: Representative John D. Dingell, w=
ho has served in Congress since 1955, against Representative Lynn N. Rive=
rs, a former school board member who won her seat in 1994. </P> <P> Anoth=
er intense matchup is in Georgia, where two conservative stalwarts, Repre=
sentatives John Linder and Bob Barr, are competing for a district near At=
lanta.</P> <P> The general election will also pit some incumbents against=
 each other and see still others fight for political life in substantiall=
y new districts.</P> <P> Representative John M. Shimkus, a Republican, an=
d Representative David D. Phelps, a Democrat, have been set against each =
other in Illinois's 19th District. Representative Nancy L. Johnson, a Rep=
ublican, will face Representative James H. Maloney, a Democrat, in Connec=
ticut. And while a court fight is still under way, Representative Charles=
 W. Pickering Jr., a Republican, could face Representative Ronnie Shows, =
a Democrat, in Mississippi.</P>
</NYT_TEXT></td></tr><tr><td> =

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- --------------754FE458C4FACE2F806663F6--

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 13 Mar 2002 15:50:02 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rick.hasen@lls.edu>
Subject: APR article

The latest issue of American Politics Research (Vol. 30, No. 2, March
2002) has the following article that may be of interest to list members
interested in the relationship of contribution limits, spending limits,
and public financing to the competitiveness of elections:

                 STATE CAMPAIGN FINANCE REGULATIONS
                 AND ELECTORAL COMPETITION
                 Donald A. Gross, Robert K. Goidel,
                 and Todd G. Shields 143
- --
Rick Hasen
Professor of Law and William M. Rains Fellow
Loyola Law School
919 South Albany Street
Los Angeles, CA  90015-1211
(213)736-1466 - voice
(213)380-3769 - fax
rick.hasen@lls.edu
http://www.lls.edu/academics/faculty/hasen.html

------------------------------

End of election-law_gl-digest V1 #161
*************************************