election-law_gl-digest Sunday, March 17 2002 Volume 01 : Number 166
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Date: Sun, 17 Mar 2002 13:50:22 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rick.hasen@lls.edu>
Subject: The Calculus of Campaign Finance
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Rick Hasen
Professor of Law and William M. Rains Fellow
Loyola Law School
919 South Albany Street
Los Angeles, CA 90015-1211
(213)736-1466 - voice
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http://www.lls.edu/academics/faculty/hasen.html
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<meta name=3D"FIRSTPAR" content=3D" As the campaign finance bill stands =
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<meta name=3D"lp" content=3D" As the campaign finance bill stands on the=
threshold of passage in the Senate, no one knows what the effect will be=
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</td></tr><tr><td align=3D"left" valign=3D"top"> <p></p> <p></p> <NY=
T_DATE><font size=3D"-1"><strong>March 17, 2002</strong></font><br></NYT_=
DATE><NYT_KICKER></NYT_KICKER><NYT_HEADLINE version=3D"1.0" type=3D" "><=
h2>The Calculus of Campaign Finance</h2></NYT_HEADLINE><NYT_BYLINE versi=
on=3D"1.0" type=3D" "><h5>By ALISON MITCHELL</h5></NYT_BYLINE><NYT_LINKS_=
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<P><IMG SRC=3D"http://graphics4.nytimes.com/images/dropcap/w.gif" ALIGN=3D=
"left" ALT=3D"W">ASHINGTON -- When a small band of apostate lawmakers set=
out seven years ago to stop the political parties from soliciting six-fi=
gure checks, their goal was simple: to cut the ties between lawmakers and=
special interest groups. But as the campaign finance overhaul bill stand=
s on the threshold of final passage in the Senate this week, one of the m=
ost interesting things about it is that no one is sure what effect it wil=
l have on Republicans, Democrats or American politics.</P> <P> The only t=
hing everybody agrees on is that if the national parties can no longer ra=
ise the unlimited donations known as soft money, which amounted to just u=
nder $500 million in 2000, the changes to the political system are likely=
to be profound.</P> <P> "Whether it is intentional or not," said Frank J=
=2E Sorauf, an emeritus professor of political science at the University =
of Minnesota, the campaign bill "is also legislation to reform the politi=
cal parties."</P> <P> "For me," he added, "that's just as important as dr=
ying up campaign finance."</P> <P> But will change bring improvement? Wil=
l the parties, stripped of soft money, reconnect with the people and beco=
me grass-roots organizations raising money door to door and working harde=
r to get out the vote? </P> <P> "It will allow smaller givers more of an =
opportunity to play a role in politics," said Senator Tom Daschle of Sout=
h Dakota, the Senate majority leader.</P> <P> Or will Congressional candi=
dates be forced to become more dependent on ideological groups like organ=
ized labor and the National Rifle Association to run television ads for t=
hem, pulling them away from the political center?</P> <P> "For moderation=
this legislation is the death knell," said Representative Thomas M. Davi=
s 3rd, Republican of Virginia and the head of the House Republicans' camp=
aign committee.</P> <P> Or perhaps candidates for Congress will simply be=
come independent operators, raising their own money and hiring their own =
strategists, and accountable to no one but their constituents once in off=
ice.</P> <P> "We'll all be kind of feeling our way along for a while," sa=
id Representative Martin T. Frost, a Texas Democrat.</P> <P> When televis=
ion became the main information source for the electorate, the national p=
arty organizations became, in effect, political banks, buying expertise a=
nd advertising for candidates. Today, these banks are located in two buil=
dings in Washington (near the Capitol, so lawmakers can pop in between vo=
tes to raise funds by phone), where hundreds of Republican and Democratic=
staffers wage the permanent campaign.</P> <P> Paid partly in soft money,=
these staffers recruit promising candidates for the Senate and the House=
=2E They research voting records. They teach skills like how to put toget=
her a campaign organization or get out the vote. And in recent years, the=
national parties have ever more aggressively wooed big donors, pouring t=
heir contributions into issue ads to bolster chosen candidates. This has =
turned the most competitive Congressional races into multimillion-dollar =
ad wars even in nonpresidential years.</P> <P> At least initially, as the=
parties are weaned from soft money, some of this activity will have to b=
e scaled back =97 unless the parties prove instantly adept at raising hug=
e sums of money in the smaller, more regulated chunks known as hard money=
=2E</P> <P> Senator Mitch McConnell, the Kentucky Republican who has long=
opposed the campaign finance bill, said he expects that with less money =
the Democratic and the Republican National Committees will concentrate on=
national candidates and do less to help candidates for, say, governor an=
d mayor.</P> <P> "It's a fundamental change in their historic roles as a =
national umbrella committee truly involved in electing all kinds of candi=
dates," he said. "I think it's sad."</P> <P> Many political scientists di=
sagree, saying that such developments may allow the state and local parti=
es to create a more grass-roots kind of politics less reliant on money an=
d direction from Washington. "It will take the state party committees off=
the dole," Mr. Sorauf said. "I call it tough love."</P> <P> In fact, the=
campaign finance law itself provides an impetus in this direction. Becau=
se black Democrats, whose votes were critical in the House, feared that t=
he disappearance of soft money would stop their party from organizing min=
ority voters, the final bill allows state and local parties to take limit=
ed soft money donations of up to $10,000 a year per individual for get- o=
ut-the-vote drives and voter education.</P> <P> What that means is that l=
ocal party leaders could become the new money magnets. It could also make=
getting out the vote more critical. Anthony Corrado, a professor of gove=
rnment at Colby College in Maine, thinks this may change suburban politic=
s because the suburbs are now where elections are decided.</P> <P> "You'r=
e probably going to see more party organization in suburban areas where y=
ou have real battlegrounds in terms of turnout," he said.</P> <P> MAYBE. =
Or maybe not. Al Cardenas, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party, =
does not expect new donors to flock his way. "Folks like the unions and c=
orporate America," he said, "they are not really going to be in the mood =
to make contributions to the local party in Sarasota, Fla. So their contr=
ibutions are going to go to third party groups and advocacy groups."</P> =
<P> And what if they do? What if the A.F.L.-C.I.O. and the Sierra Club an=
d the National Right to Life Committee and the National Rifle Association=
and other groups all run political advertising with soft money in lieu o=
f the parties? Under the campaign bill, that's legal, except just before =
general elections and primaries.</P> <P> Mr. Davis and other party stalwa=
rts argue that this will make candidates more dependent on narrower inter=
ests and make it harder for moderates of both parties to survive. In the =
ideologically divided House, whatever small center exists could disappear=
=2E But how different would this be from the current situation, in which =
advocacy groups already work pretty much in concert with one or the other=
of the two national parties? "Right now there are two gigantic thunderin=
g herds in American politics," said one Republican strategist, "and that'=
s not going to change so much."</P> <P> Thus far, the one clear winner in=
all of this is George W. Bush. In 2000, Mr. Bush raised so much in $1,00=
0 chunks that he spurned federal matching funds in the primary, allowing =
him to ignore spending limits. And if he signs the new bill into law, Mr.=
Bush should be able to raise at least twice as much in 2004. Individual =
donors will be able to give $2,000 to a federal candidate instead of $1,0=
00. And if Mr. Bush's popularity ratings stay high, some Republicans pred=
ict he will be able to opt out of the public finance system altogether.</=
P>
</NYT_TEXT></td></tr><tr><td> =
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