This may be of passing interest to people on this list.  I've created a web
page with 2002 voting-age population and voting-eligible numbers by state at
http://elections.gmu.edu/2002_VEP.htm.  I've included links and citations to
all of the data and procedures used to generate these numbers.  I've had
discussions with the Census Bureau and they do not plan to release the 2002
VAP projection before the election, but they have provided me with
procedures to do it myself, which I also document.

Thanks to everyone who responded concerning the changes in felony
disfranchisement laws.  A few people pointed me to The Sentencing Project,
which has a report with up-to-date status on felony disfranchisement laws:
http://www.sentencingproject.org/brief/pub1046.pdf.

And thanks for David Lublin for advertising my research.  Yes, if turnout is
calculated as a percentage of those eligible to vote, turnout has been
variable, but has not trended downward, since 1972.   The growing ineligible
population is primarily composed of non-citizens, which according to the
Current Population Survey, were about 2% of the VAP in 1972 and comprise 8%
of the VAP in 2000.  In some states the percentage is much higher, such as
California where nearly 20% of the VAP is non-citizen.  Ineligible felons
began rising  in the mid-1980s from about 0.5% of the VAP to about 1.5% by
2000.  Citations to published articles are also available on the above
mentioned web site.

==================================
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Assistant Professor
Dept of Public and International Affairs
George Mason University
4400 University Drive - 3F4
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

Office: 703-993-4191
Fax: 703-993-1399
Efax: 561-431-3190

mmcdon@gmu.edu
http://elections.gmu.edu/