Subject: Southern Realignment Rolls On
From: David Lublin
Date: 11/7/2002, 1:26 PM
To: election-law@majordomo.lls.edu

Hello,

Not exactly election law but considering the importance of the Voting
Rights Act in the region, I thought people might enjoy a summary of
political changes in the South.

The number of Democratic Governors: 4 of 11 (all time low).  As is well
known, it looks as if the 1998 crop of Dems elected all went down (AL,
SC, and GA).  The victory in SC gives the GOP unified control of the
state government.

The percentage of Democratic U.S. Senators: 41% (9 of 22).  If Landrieu
loses, it will drop even further.  The Dems made one pickup in AR
against an "ethically challenged" incumbent, but the GOP won races in
AL, NC, MS, SC, GA (pickup), TN, TX.  No Senator or Governor is African
American or Latino.

The percentage of Democratic U.S. Representatives: 41% (54 of 131).
Republican political maps were highly effective in Florida, Mississippi,
and Virginia (MS was drawn by a court).  The Dem plan for Georgia didn't
work as well as they hoped; the GA delegation went from 3D, 8R to 5D,
8R.  The successful Dem effort in TX to protect incumbents via
litigation worked relatively well.  Of the 54 Democrats, I believe that
17 are black and 5 are Latino.  I think there are also 4 Latino
Republicans.  (Note also the quiet, small party trend in the opposite
direction in the Northeast; virtually all Dem pickups were from states
between DC and ME, such as the two seats in MD, Holden's win in PA, and
Grucci's possible defeat in NY01).

The percentage of Democratic State House seats: 52.5% (696 of 1325).
Less publicized were mighty GOP gains here.  I believe this represents a
fairly substantial drop though it is certainly part of the long-term
pattern.  The GOP now has control of the TX House and unified control of
the state for the first time.  The NC House is now split evenly between
the two parties.  The GOP VA plan gave the GOP a huge majority last
year.  The Dems should probably be grateful that LA and MS elect state
reps in odd-numbered years or their slender majority of state House
seats might disappear as well.

Regards,
David Lublin
American University