A preliminary analysis of the election returns shows that of the ballots
cast, 42.5% were on Votomatic and Pollstar punch card machines.  Our
preliminary calculations show that Question #1 was either not marked by
the voter or recorded by the equipment in 7.7% of the ballots cast on
these machines.  The average "not counted/marked" rate for the remaining
voting systems is 2.3%, with the next highest rate being the Optech
optical scanner at 4.35%.

The Votmatic and Pollstar machines were employed on Election Day in
Sacramento, Santa Clara, Los Angeles, Mendocino, San Diego, Sierra and
Solano Counties.

These figure are preliminary because some of the ballots cast in some of
these counties were completed during early voting on alternative
equipment.  For example LAC utilized DRE's for early voting.  This means
that the "not counted/marked" rate is actually higher for the Votomatic
and the Pollstar than the preliminary analysis indicates.  More accurate
results will be available as soon as the counties release this more
detailed information.

Furthermore, our organization stationed poll monitors inside and
Voterwatchers (volunteers administering voter survey as voters departed
the polls) outside of several precincts across California.  We witnessed
confusion, long lines, crowded polling stations, and overwhelmed poll
workers in two of three counties, with Alameda (DRE machines) being the
exception.


______________________________
Steven Hertzberg  
Votewatch, a nonprofit Corporation
San Francisco, California 94123

http://www.votewatch.us
Your Eye on Elections  


-----Original Message-----
From: owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu
[mailto:owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu] On Behalf Of Roy
Schotland
Sent: Thursday, October 09, 2003 7:18 AM
To: mmcdon@gmu.edu
Cc: election-law@majordomo.lls.edu; election@csd.uwm.edu
Subject: Re: Applause for Calif's voting officials?


Given the worries that were expressed --and which seemed so reasonable--
about having fewer precincts compounded by slower voting compounded by
the limited preparation time compounded by the lawsuit confusion ... and
given how the day went, is it off-base to say that the election
officials came thru admirably? And going by what I've seen, unpraised?

Michael McDonald wrote:

The media storyline of record turnout was so pervasive on Tuesday that

even the Weather Channel was reporting, "clear skies for the record 
California turnout."  What really happened?

As of 6am California time, with 96.8% precincts reporting, total 
number of ballots cast is 7.9 million.  When all precincts have 
reported, about 8 million will probably have cast a ballot.  With so 
few precincts left to report, and with most of the large counties 
completely accounted for, it is unlikely that the raw number of votes 
will exceed the 8.6 million cast in the 1998 election, though the 
number has already exceed the 7.7 million cast in the 2002 election.  
In terms of raw turnout, this is a remarkable special election, but it

is not, as the media reported it, a record turnout for a governor's 
election.  These reports were based on pre-election polling. Moral of 
the story: people lie about intention to vote on pre-election polls, a

fact that is well-known in survey research.

Of course, these are raw numbers.  There are more toilets in 
California than in 2002 simply because the population is growing.  As 
a percentage of the eligible population, the turnout rate in the 
special election was about 37.9%.  This will be slightly higher than 
the 37.2% turnout rate of 2002 and will certainly be less than the 
45.4% in 1998.  Note that the Secretary of State's office reports the 
turnout rate as a percentage of the registered voters.  This is not a 
good statistic to use for between-state and historical comparisons 
because registration laws and the accuracy of the registration rolls 
vary across states and over time.  A preferred statistic is turnout as

a percentage of eligible voters.

According to the Secretary of State's office 7,572,867 people voted 
for the first question on recall, while 7,947,717 cast a ballot.  
Approximately 370,000 people did not vote on the recall question!  Los

Angeles, one of the counties that used the punch cards, accounts for 
almost half of the
discrepancy: 1,789,766 people voted for recall while 1,964,853 people

cast a

ballot, about 91.1% of the people in Los Angeles voted on the first
question, or a difference of 170,000 persons.  Of course, Los Angeles

is

also one of the most populous counties in the state.  My guess is that
Alameda has touch screens, and the election returns show that the

people in

Alameda supported Davis, like in Los Angeles.  In Alameda, of the

391,727

people who voted, 388,819 cast a ballot in the recall, for a rate of

99.3%.

The approximately 700,000 difference on the recall cannot be overcome

even

if all undervotes went to Davis, though it is possible that more

people

voted against the recall: 3,465,666, than voted for Schwarzeneggar:
3,528,093, when undervotes are factored in.

==================================
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Assistant Professor
Dept of Public and International Affairs
George Mason University
4400 University Drive - 3F4
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

Office: 703-993-4191
Fax: 703-993-1399
Efax: 561-431-3190

mmcdon@gmu.edu
http://elections.gmu.edu/