The California Secretary of State now reports 8,374,804 ballots have been
cast, for a turnout rate among eligible voters of 39.6%. The final turnout
rate will probably creep up in the coming days as the remaining absentee,
provisional, and write-in votes are tallied. From talking with my friends
on the ground in California, I am expecting a final tally somewhere in the
neighborhood of 8.5 million, or a turnout rate among eligible voters of
approximately 40.5%. This turnout rate will be higher than the 37.2% rate
in 2002 and lower than the 45.4% rate in 1998. It is an unusual special
election, but is not a record vote for a governor's election.
As for the undervotes (those persons casting a ballot, but not voting for an
item on the ballot) and voting systems, using the current numbers available
at the Secretary of State's web site, I have calculated the following
undervoting rates:
Punchcards
Recall undervotes: 7.1%
Replacement undervotes: 9.0%
Optical scan
Recall undervotes: 5.0%
Replacement undervotes: 9.4%
Touchscreen
Recall undervotes: 1.4%
Replacement undervotes: 6.7%
Exit Poll (statewide)
Recall undervotes: 2.6%
Replacement undervotes: 7.0%
One other bit of information of interest:
Vote "Yes" Recall
Punchcards 50.0%
Optical scan 55.0%
Touchscreen 50.8%
Statewide, there were 7,989,828 ballots cast on question 1, the recall, for
a turnout rate of 37.8%. This was 95.4% of all ballots cast, for an
undervote of 384,976. If we assume the exit poll is correct, then 4.6%
minus 2.6% or 2.0% of the persons who cast ballots intended to vote on the
recall, but their vote was not recorded. The number of undervote errors
would therefore be approximately 160,000 (a little less than the 178,170
vote differential between the "no on recall" and vote for Schwarzenegger).
Interestingly, we see that even though voters who voted by touchscreen and
punchcard were very similar in their preference for recalling Davis, 1.4% of
touchscreen voters did not vote in the recall while 7.1% of punchcard (and
5.0% of optical scan) voters did not.
On question 2, the replacement, 7,698,407 persons voted for a turnout rate
of 36.4%. This was 91.9% of all ballots cast, for an undervote of 676,397.
Again, if we assume the exit poll was correct, 8.1% minus 7.0% or 1.9% of
the persons who cast ballots intended to vote for a replacement candidate,
but their vote was not recorded. The number of undervote errors would be
approximately, 150,000. We see the same pattern as with the recall
question: 6.7% of touchscreen voters did not vote for a replacement
candidate, while 9.0% of punchcard and 9.4% of optical scan voters did not.
In both cases, touchscreen voters had smaller undervote rates than the
punchcard and optical scan voters, and also had a rate smaller than the exit
poll indicated. Either of two conclusions may be reached: touchscreen
recorded fewer errors, or more people were prompted to vote by having a
computer screen tell them to do so. The difference of undervote rates
between systems provides evidence for the first conclusion, while the
difference between the exit poll and the touchscreen undervote rate provides
evidence for the second conclusion (though sampling error on the exit poll
may account for this evidence, too).
If the prompting of the touchscreens induced more touchscreen voters to
completely fill out the ballot, this may have some profound implications for
future elections. If voters feel obliged to complete the touchscreen
prompts, I image that they will be more likely to vote for downballot races,
and thus there will be less rolloff. (The proposition voting is a clear
test of the hypothesis.) If voters do behave in this manner, it will be
curious to see what information will govern their decision making
process...will they use partisanship as a guide when it is available?
Finally, as a fun aside consider...
Schwartzman vote (as percent of question 2):
Punchcards 0.17%
Optical scan 0.12%
Touchscreen 0.11%
I will post the data used to make these calculations on my website later
this evening (http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm).
==================================
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Assistant Professor
Dept of Public and International Affairs
George Mason University
4400 University Drive - 3F4
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
Office: 703-993-4191
Fax: 703-993-1399
Efax: 561-431-3190
mmcdon@gmu.edu
http://elections.gmu.edu/