BCRA is not the only recent event that has influenced fundraising, and I tend to think that with respect to small donors to Democrats, it is not the most significant.  Florida and the invasion of Iraq have clearly energized the left such that it is very simplistic to assume that Dems could have raised a similar number of hard money donations before BCRA.  Additionally, while oft overstated, the role of the continued emergence of the Internet is not to be overlooked.

Basically, BCRA would have hurt Dems far worse when similar bills were first proposed than when it finally was implemented.