Dear all --

This is a fascinating piece about the links between govt officials, vote
buying (or influencing), and turnout and its impact on partisan alignments.
Some of you may remember that Japan went from a single-nontransferable vote
system to a mixed system (half SMD, half PR) system in 1994.  The intended
effect was to promote accountability and mandate type campaigns.  Its seems
to be working . . .

Fabrice Lehoucq
Division of Political Studies
Centro de Investigaci—n y Docencia Econ—mica (CIDE)
Carret. Mexico-Toluca 3655
Lomas de Santa FŽ, Mexico City, DF, CP 01210
Tel. 52 55/5727 9800, ext. 2215 (voice) & -9871 or 9873 (fax)
E-mail: Fabrice.Lehoucq@cide.edu


-----Original Message-----
From: prutland@wesleyan.edu [mailto:prutland@wesleyan.edu]
Sent: Lunes, 07 de Junio de 2004 11:45 p.m.
To: fabrice.lehoucq@cide.edu
Subject: pork


The Japan Times: June 8, 2004


Power of LDP support groups waning
Party jittery over July election as Koizumi reforms trigger desertions

By KANAKO TAKAHARA
Staff writer

About 5,000 people gathered in Sapporo on May 23 to attend a convention of
the
national association of special post office chiefs, a longtime supporter of
and
the biggest vote-gathering machine for the Liberal Democratic Party.
"We profoundly appreciate the cooperation of postmasters in the House of
Representatives election last November," said Fukushiro Nukaga, chief of the
LDP policy affairs council, in a speech. "We ask for your further support
for
Kensei Hasegewa in the House of Councilors election in July."

Hasegawa, a former bureaucrat at the posts and telecommunications ministry,
is
an LDP candidate for the Upper House election expected to be held July 11.
He
is backed by the postal association.

But many members of the postal association say their legendary
vote-gathering
power is a thing of the past.

"We have been instructed (unofficially by the association) to gather at
least
50 votes each" in the upcoming election, said a post office chief who asked
not
to be named. "But we probably will not be able to gather as many votes we
did
in the in the last election (in 2001)."

In the 1980 Upper House election, the group of some 19,000 special post
office
heads and another group of retired postal chiefs showcased their
vote-gathering
power, racking up more than 1 million votes for an LDP candidate.

In the 2001 election, however, the groups could only gather about 480,000
votes
for an LDP candidate they were backing.

There are about 25,000 post offices nationwide, of which some 19,000 are
called
special post offices. Other types are large general post offices that
conduct
both mail collection and delivery, along with small contracted offices in
remote areas.

Powerful local figures have traditionally served as the heads of special
post
offices. Even though they are public servants, they have often been
succeeded
by their children, following nominal screening procedures.

For the upcoming election, many of the postal group members are maintaining
a
low profile to avoid the problems they faced in the 2001 race. That election
led to the arrest of 16 people, including elite postal bureaucrats and
postal
group members who were charged with violating the Public Offices Election
Law,
which bans public servants from campaigning for a specific candidate.

LDP member Kenji Koso, whom the association backed, resigned from the Diet
to
take responsibility.

Experts say the LDP's many other support groups are also losing their vote-
gathering power because fewer members are following instructions to campaign
for specific candidates.

Tomoaki Iwai, professor of politics at Nihon University, meanwhile noted
that
the introduction of the proportional representation system in the 1983 Upper
House election led to a decline in vote-gathering power among LDP support
groups.

"Members of a support group have come to focus on lobbying party executives
to
put the group-backed candidate on top of the party's roster rather than
election campaign itself," Iwai said.

Under the PR system, seats are allocated to each party in accordance with
the
number of votes won by the party. Party candidates are thus elected
according
to the party roster.

The number of rank-and-file LDP members belonging to industry groups backing
the party was at its peak in 1991, at 4.6 million. But the figure had
dropped
to some 860,000 in 2003, according to LDP officials.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's structural reform drive, which is
hampering
the interests of many traditional LDP support groups, has also affected
campaign activities.

The postmasters' group fears that unprofitable offices will be slashed or
reorganized if Koizumi's plan to privatize the nation's postal services
comes
to fruition.

Agricultural cooperative associations, meanwhile, are opposed to free-trade
agreements that would further open Japan's farm market, while construction
industry groups are disgruntled with Koizumi's efforts to slash public works
projects.

Some bodies seem to be distancing themselves from the LDP, such as Nihon
Ishi
Renmei (the Japan Medical League), a nationwide doctors' group boasting
80,000
members.

Although the group is backing LDP candidate Hidetoshi Nishijima, a league
board
member, many of its members are opposed to the medical reform policies of
the
Koizumi administration, such as allowing hospitals to be run by stock
corporations.

"Our group has said that it will progress together with the ruling LDP,"
said
Akihiro Morimoto, a senior group member in charge of election campaigning.
"But
that does not mean we will back the party forever."

Since taking office in April 2001, Koizumi has counseled LDP candidates
against
depending too heavily on organized votes, telling them that they should
appeal
to individual voters.

Although Koizumi's public popularity brought the LDP a sweeping victory in
the
2001 Upper House election, the party now appears to be desperate for support
from all groups.

"It will be a tough race," said a senior LDP member of the Upper House who
asked not to be named. "It is getting more and more difficult to foresee the
outcome of an election."

In an effort to gear up for the poll, the LDP held a rally at a Tokyo hotel
last week attended by some 3,000 people representing 1,500 industry groups.

With pension-related scandals and the deteriorating security situation in
Iraq
casting a pall over campaigning, Koizumi himself attended the meeting.

"I, as the president of the LDP, ask you to help us win the Upper House
election," Koizumi told the gathering.

The LDP is also seeking support from organizations that have not backed the
party before.

At a party convention in January, the LDP set up a committee on nonprofit
and
nongovernmental organizations in an apparent effort to garner their support.

Last month, LDP Secretary General Shinzo Abe and Mikio Aoki, an LDP
heavyweight
in the Upper House, met with senior officials of the Japan Buddhist
Federation,
which comprises 58 traditional Buddhist denominations, to call for their
support in the election.

The LDP's relations with the JBF were soured after the party formed a
coalition
with New Komeito, backed by the nation's biggest lay Buddhist organization,
Soka Gakkai.

But some LDP members are doubtful that the party can build up relations with
groups of this kind overnight. "It would take time to nurture relationships
with them and gain all-out support," an LDP official said.

Iwai of Nihon University noted that the LDP's political power will decline
unless it succeeds in reaching out to new voter segments, including
unaffiliated voters.

Moreover, industry organizations need to shift from the status of vote-
gathering machines to the status of bodies that can submit their own policy
proposals to the LDP, he said, citing the Japan Business Federation (Nippon
Keidanren) as a role model.

In January, Nippon Keidanren unveiled policy evaluations of the LDP and the
main opposition force, the Democratic Party of Japan, that will serve as a
reference for member companies wanting to make political donations.

Nippon Keidanren has also submitted policy proposals on various occasions.

"Organizations should propose their policies and ask both the LDP and
opposition parties what they could offer," Iwai said. In that way, industry
groups, politicians and parties will be able to influence one another in a
healthier manner, he said.