<x-flowed>Have blogged on this subject as well as some of the "Kerry Won" claims that
have arisen from Ohio
here:
http://equalvote.blogspot.com/2004_11_01_equalvote_archive.html#109996076062163291
I'm persuaded by Mebane's analysis of Florida, to which Henry
refers. Bryan Pfaffenberger's got a nifty map which graphically
illustrates what went on in the panhandle and central Florida:
http://www.battlebunny.org/
Dan
Daniel P. Tokaji
Assistant Professor of Law
The Ohio State University
Moritz College of Law
55 W. 12th Ave.
Columbus, OH 43210
voice: 614-292-6566
fax: 614-688-8422
tokaji.1@osu.edu
http://equalvote.blogspot.com/
At 01:50 PM 11/9/2004, Henry E. Brady wrote:
The following from Walter Mebane at Cornell and his collaborators seems
rather definitive on this topic. They conclude that there is no evidence
of a problem by looking at past voting in those Counties. Mebane and his
collaborators (including me) did considerable work showing that the
butterfly ballot in 2000 did lead to at least 2000 Gore voters mistakenly
voting for Buchanan so we are not naive about the possibilities.
TO SHORTEN THE MESSAGE, I HAVE OMITTED THE DATA AND JUST INCLUDED THEIR
SUMMARY OF IT. The short summary is that the phenomenon is the result of
the continuing realignment in the South -- there are voters who continue
to register Democratic (perhaps because they have not bothered to change
their registration in years) but who increasingly vote Republican.
Henry Brady
University of California, Berkeley
FROM WALTER MEBANE AND HIS COLLABORATORS:
To the Editor:
Regarding "Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked," by Thom
Hartmann
<http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm>http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
Jasjeet Sekhon <jasjeet_sekhon@harvard.edu>, Jonathan Wand
<wand@stanford.edu> and I <wrm1@cornell.edu> have looked into the
allegation of vote fraud involving optical scan voting machines in the
2004 presidential election voting in Florida. Based on the data shown
below, we conclude that allegation is baseless. Instead, the pattern in
which counties that have high Democratic registration had high percentage
increases in the vote for Bush reflects the fact that all those counties
have trended strongly Republican over the past twelve years. The counties
are mostly in the Florida Panhandle. Given the voting history and
registration trends, these counties seem to have many old-style southern
Democrats who have not bothered to change their registration.
The story
<http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm>http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
refers to data originally posted at
<http://www.jefffisherforcongress.com/>http://www.jefffisherforcongress.com/
in particular at
<http://www.jefffisherforcongress.com/Campaign2006/SurprisingFloridaPresidentialElectionResults.htm>http://www.jefffisherforcongress.com/Campaign2006/SurprisingFloridaPresidentialElectionResults.htm
In the following tables, (E) or (O) after the county name indicates
whether the voting machine was E-Touch or Op-Scan. The column labeled
DemChg04 is the Percent Change Dem statistic from table at the
aforementioned link. Columns DemV00, DemV96 and DemV92 give the proportion
of votes cast for the Democratic presidential candidate in election years
2000, 1996 and 1992. Columns DemR04, DemR00 and DemR96 give the proportion
of voters registered Democratic in 2004, 2000 and 1996, and columns
RepR04, RepR00 and RepR96 give the proportion registered Republican. You
can see that the counties that have big negative values for DemChg04 have
had low proportions voting Democratic but high proportions registered
Democratic going all the way back to 1992 (Table 1). The proportion
registered Democratic has been decreasing, albeit slowly, while the
proportion registered Republican has been increasing, again slowly (Table 2).
At 09:48 PM 11/7/2004 -0800, Karl Manheim wrote:
An article on CommonDreams.org reports the possibility of vote tampering
in Florida. It analyzes significant disparities between party
registrations and votes for Kerry/Bush in counties using optical
scanners, in contrast to counties using touch-screens where those
disparities didn't show up.
See <http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm>Thom Hartmann,
<http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm>Evidence Mounts
That the Vote May Have Been Hacked (Nov. 6, 2004).
Karl
--
Karl Manheim
Loyola Law School
919 S. Albany St.
Los Angeles, CA 90015
Tel: 213-736-1106
Web:
<http://faculty.lls.edu/manheim>http://faculty.lls.edu/manheim
Email Policies:
<http://karl.us/email>http://karl.us/email
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