I hate to disagree with Larry, but the full data show the true skill of
the 1990s masters: their districts elected Democrats in 50 of 80
Assembly seats in 2000, but the SAME PLAN elected Republicans in 41 of
80 seats in the 1994 election. 

It is also of note that four California Congressional Districts shifted
party control during the 1990s -- and two of them did so twice! A fifth
district (Steve Horn's) also came within just a percent of two of
changing hands in virtually every 1990s election. 

I think that has to be considered both a plan with competitive districts
and one that resulted in a legislature that shifted as the voters'
concerns shifted.

- Doug

Douglas Johnson
Senior Research Associate
Rose Institute of State and Local Government
doug@talksoftly.com
310-200-2058

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu
[mailto:owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu] On Behalf Of Larry
Levine
Sent: Friday, January 14, 2005 3:29 PM
To: nbradley@aclu.org; karin@cain.berkeley.edu; Rick Hasen
Cc: election-law
Subject: Re: CA Governor's Redistricting Plan


If that's what it means then the Republicans are in big trouble. Last
time California redistricting was done by a court of masters the
Democrats ended up with 50 of the 80 seats in the Assembly. Fact is
there are more dems than reps in California and the independent vote
breaks heavily democratic. So, start with the Voting Rights Act and
through in certain other considerations and you are going to end up with
a large number of seats that look competative until the votes are
counted. Larry Levine


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Neil Bradley" <nbradley@aclu.org>
To: <karin@cain.berkeley.edu>; "Rick Hasen" <Rick.Hasen@lls.edu>
Cc: "election-law" <election-law@majordomo.lls.edu>
Sent: Friday, January 14, 2005 1:59 PM
Subject: RE: CA Governor's Redistricting Plan

It may mean that election returns at the precinct level could be used,

but that information contained on a list of voters, which might 
include party affiliation and which party's primary they voted in, may

not be used.

Neil Bradley
Voting Rights Project
Atlanta, GA

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu
[mailto:owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu]On Behalf Of 
karin@cain.berkeley.edu
Sent: Friday, January 14, 2005 4:10 PM
To: Rick Hasen
Cc: election-law
Subject: Re: CA Governor's Redistricting Plan


ACA3 reads:

Data regarding party affiliation or voting history of electors could 
not be used. To the extent possible, district boundaries would be 
required to be drawn to ensure a prescribed level of competitiveness 
between the two largest political parties.

can someone explain to me how one would assess competitiveness if 
political data can not be used?

thank you
.
karin mac donald
statewide database
igs/ucb