Subject: news of the day 4/20/05
From: Rick Hasen
Date: 4/20/2005, 10:13 AM
To: election-law

"State Drops Charges Against Buddy Dyer"

More embarassing election law related news from Florida here.

<>

An Attempt to Make a Statistical Argument to Reverse the Outcome of the Washington State Gubernatorial Election

See this report. A snippet:

<>Two political science professors -- Jonathan Katz of the California Institute of Technology and Anthony Gill of the University of Washington -- broke down the data for the GOP.

Both subtracted improper votes from the candidates in proportion to the overall vote each received. When possible, precinct returns were used to establish the pattern; otherwise, county results set the percentages. For example, if Gregoire received 60 percent of a vote in Precinct A and Rossi 40 percent, and there were 100 improper votes from that precinct, Gregoire's total would be reduced by 60 votes and Rossi's by 40.

In most cases, the number of improper votes traceable to a single precinct is very small -- often, as few as one. In that case, using the same percentages, Gregoire would lose 0.6 votes and Rossi 0.4.

Katz analyzed 1,053 allegedly improper votes statewide and concluded that eliminating them from the count would yield a roughly 100-vote margin for Rossi. (The total of improper votes in Katz's report is less than the total of claimed by the GOP in separate documents.)

Gill focused on votes from felons that could be tied to individual precincts. Subjecting the 879 votes in his data base to the statistical analysis would produce a Rossi edge of 191.38 votes, Gill said.


It is unclear to me from the article whether the GOP is using the argument to argue that the court should order a new election based on this data, or should reverse the outcome of the election and declare Rossi the winner. If it is the latter, I think this would be a terrible precedent, very much like what happened in the notorious Compton, California election challenge a few years ago, where based on some flimsy social science statistical data about the "ballot order effect," a trial judge reversed the outcome of a mayoral race. Fortunately, the trial court decision was quickly reversed on appeal. [Disclosure: I consulted for the city of Compton in that litigation.]

"For Signature Gatherers, Name Game Means Profit"

The L.A. Times offers this report on the initiative petition business in California.


"Reformer Calls for New Limits on Elections"

The Sacramento Bee offers this report, which begins: "Bob Stern, one of the architects of the state's Political Reform Act, said Tuesday that he believes that public financing of elections is the next major change needed to improve elections in California."


FPPC Appeals Ruling in Candidate-Controlled Ballot Measure Case

It sure took the FPPC long enough to decide, and as the FPPC notes in its press release, its rules now remain in effect for the pendency of the appeal (unless, as seems possible, Citizens/Schwarzenegger get an injunction preventing enforcement of the regulation pending appeal---though it looks like the plaintiffs disagree with the FPPC position on what happens pending appeal.) Thanks to Jeremy Thompson for the pointer. A brief Bee story is here.
This is a very important case. I think there is a fair chance that an appeals court agrees with the lower court that these regulations cannot be enforced so as to limit contributions to candiate-controlled ballot measure campaigns in California. But that's not because such limits are unconstitutional. I've argued that such limits likely are now constitutional. But there are serious questions as to whether the FPPC had the authority to enact the regulation and whether its particular wording creates unacceptable amounts of vagueness.
I hope that any appellate court opinion will go out of its way to note that a properly enacted and less vague statute can survive constitutional muster in light of McConnell and despite the Citizens Against Rent Control case.


Disclosure and the Mainstream Media

With all the talk about whether the FEC should require bloggers to reveal on their websites if they are paid by campaigns to blog in favor of the campaigns, Jeff Hauser passes along this link to a Howard Kurtz Washington Post column, which notes the following:


The Mother Jones story is here.

Suit to Overturn Virginia Primary Law

See here. Thanks to the Jaded J.D. for the link.


"Clock's ticking on initiative to revise redistricting rules"

The San Diego Union-Tribune offers this report, which includes: "Ted Costa, the initiative's author, said yesterday that while he has no doubt it will make the June 2006 ballot, it might not have enough petition signatures in time to qualify for a special election this fall if the governor calls one."
-- 
Rick Hasen
William H. Hannon Distinguished Professor of Law
Loyola Law School
919 Albany Street
Los Angeles, CA  90015-1211
(213)736-1466
(213)380-3769 – fax
rick.hasen@lls.edu
http://electionlawblog.org
http://www.lls.edu/academics/faculty/hasen.html