I received the following very interesting e-mail from Hugh Brady, and I 
am passing it on to the list with his permission.  If anyone replies, 
please copy Mr. Brady, who is not on the list.

Rick

----- Original Message -----
From: Hugh Brady <hbrady@fitzwaterfirm.com>
Date: Thursday, April 21, 2005 9:36 am
Subject: Statistical Sampling in WA Governor's Race

The GOP analysis sounds alot like the GOP analysis used in Texas 
duringthe legislative election contest where Hubert Vo (D) 
unseated House
Appropriations Chair Talmadge Heflin (R) by 33 votes. I was a 
lawyer for
Vo, and Helfin tried to do a similar, but slightly different, 
technique of
deducting votes in proportion to the number of "known" illegal 
votes they
claimed were cast. For example, Helfin's counsel phoned 250 claimed
illegal voters. Of those calls, he obtained 91 responses, which 
showed 35
illegal votes for his client, and 56 illegal votes for Vo. His 
"expert"then extrapolated the percentage to the unknown ballots to 
claim there was
an illegal vote margin of 57.7 for Vo, thus handing his client a 
win. The
legislative master rejected the argument and Heflin withdrew his 
contestshortly thereafter.

I was wondering if anyone has looked at the law review article
"Mathematical Probability in Election Challenges" by Michael 
Finkelsteinand Herbert Robbins, 73 Colum. L. Rev. 241 (1973). We 
looked at this right
before trial, but didn't need it because our experts were more than
prepared on general statistical grounds to rebut Heflin's expert. 
The law
review article seems to argue that statistical methods can 
demonstrate the
probability of reversal relative to the number of votes cast for a
candidate.

The reason I am emailing you at all is because it seems that the
Finkelstein article lays out a fairly simple statistical analysis 
that can
be used by a court. Even assuming changes in case law over the 
years and
differences between NY and WA, it at least seems a starting point.
Certainly in Texas, there were two election contests in the 1990s 
wherethe legislative committee wanted a statistical analysis, but 
none of the
parties provided one. The chairman and master even wrote a law review
article about the need for/lack of statistical analysis. 
"Consideration of
Illegal Votes in Legislative Election Contests" by Robert A. 
Junell, et
al., 28 Tex. Tech L. Rev. 1095 (1997). But since no one ever cites 
to or
uses Finkelstein, I am wondering if it has been discredited in 
some way.

Thanks for reading,

Best regards,

HUGH BRADY
-- 
Hugh L. Brady
Attorney & Counselor at Law
The Fitzwater Firm, L.L.P.
823 Congress Avenue, Suite 800
Austin, Texas 78701

(512) 275-3600
(512) 233-0970 fax
hbrady@fitzwaterfirm.com

PLEASE NOTE: This message originates from a law office and may be
confidential and privileged.  If you are not the intended recipient,
kindly delete the message.  I would also appreciate a return e-mail
letting me know the message went astray. Thank you.