| Subject: Republicans lose Washington election contest |
| From: Rick Hasen |
| Date: 6/6/2005, 9:56 AM |
| To: election-law |
My notes are below:
The judge is giving detailed factual findings, so far, only for
background.
Important factual finding: The judge has rejected the assumptions behind the "proportionate deduction" Republican model for determining illegal votes. This is the major legal ruling. It means the judge is likely to conclude that the Republicans' claim will fail.
The judge has said that the Katz model suffers from the ecological fallacy. But he also appears to be concerned about the cherry picking of data.
Court concludes that if the proportionate deduction method were in fact used, it appears that Gregoire would have won.
The court has turned to the conclusions of law.
It appears pretty clear that the Republicans are going to lose at the trial court.
Court concludes it is not enough that illegal votes were cast, but that petitioners establish the elements of causation: that there were enough illegal votes to change the outcome of the election. While there is evidence of irregularity, there is no substantial evidence by clear and convincing evidence that illegal conduct caused Gregoire's election.
-- Rick Hasen William H. Hannon Distinguished Professor of Law Loyola Law School 919 Albany Street Los Angeles, CA 90015-1211 (213)736-1466 (213)380-3769 – fax rick.hasen@lls.edu http://electionlawblog.org http://www.lls.edu/academics/faculty/hasen.html