I think Brad's hopeful argument here is hardly persuasive. The reason this
hasn't happened that often before is because it was rare for legislatures to
switch parties, particularly in the South, where the Democrats were so
entrenched. And contrary to his assertion, we're already seeing it happen
-- Georgia has just passed (and the governor just signed) its latest (among
several) mid-decade redistrictings pushed through by the new GOP majority --
this one splitting Clark County (where the University of Georgia is located,
and which has always elected a Democrat) solely for the purpose of electing
another Republican. This after a voluntary mid-decade redistricting of
Congress. We're seeing an era where we will likely see a switch to one
party control in several states -- to the GOP in states like Alabama (where
the Democrats still control the legislature), and to the Democrats in states
like California (if Schwarzenegger loses) and Pennsylvania (where Democrats
are gaining in the legislature). Indeed, in PA, Democrats win only 37% of
Congressional seats, despite having a Democratic governor, and voting for
the Democratic candidate in the last 4 presidential elections, and if the
Democrats can win control of the legislature (and the Democrats look very
strong this election year there), they could gain at least 3, and maybe as
many as 6 (using the same measure of proportionality used by the TX GOP)
Congressional seats. If the Supreme Court puts its imprimatur upon such
cynical political power grabs, where one party grabs a disproportionate
number of seats while shutting out all dissent and argument from the
minority party and minority (racial) voters and legislators (and one can
hardly conceive of a more blatant display of raw political hubris as
occurred in Texas, particularly when considering the financial
improprieties), as I agree it likely will, I believe Richard is quite right
that we will routinely see mid-decade power grabs of this sort, on both
sides, and the decennial redistrictings will simply be used to set up the
eventual mid-decade power grabs. That's exactly what happened in Texas,
where the GOP, knowing it couldn't redraw the lines as it would like in
2001, ground the redistricting process to a halt, and the legislature had to
abdicate its responsibility to draw a Congressional plan, leading to a
court-drawn plan, which then was used later in the decade as a justification
for the legislature to "correct" the court-drawn plan. In only the last 2-3
years, we've seen it in Georgia, we've seen it in Texas, and this is all
BEFORE the Supreme Court puts its stamp of approval on it. I think we all
hope in our hearts that Brad is right, but I think we all know in our heads
that he's not.
David J. Becker
Election Consultant and Voting Rights Attorney
(202) 550-3470
(202) 521-4040 fax
david.j.becker@electionconsulting.com
www.electionconsulting.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu
[mailto:owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu] On Behalf Of Smith, Brad
Sent: Wednesday, March 01, 2006 10:23 PM
To: election-law@majordomo.lls.edu
Subject: RE: prediction on congressional redistricting
I just think this is not true at all. It never (or at least never to my
knowledge, and I'm comfortable enough with my knowledge to therefore at
least conclude "very rarely") happened before, and even now most states have
shown restraint. I think it unlikely that Richard's horror scenario will
occur, and frankly, if the votes last November in California and Ohio mean
anything, they mean that voters would revolt. It's even one of the factors
hurting Tom DeLay in polls.
Brad Smith
________________________________
From: owner-election-law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu on behalf of
ban@richardwinger.com
Sent: Wed 3/1/2006 9:06 PM
To: election-law@majordomo.lls.edu
Subject: prediction on congressional redistricting
If the U.S. Supreme Court rules that Texas did not
violate the Constitution when it redrew the boundaries
of congressional districts in 2003 for partisan
reasons, then every time a state transfers power from
one major party to the other in the state executive
and legislative branches, we will see mid-decade
partisan re-redistricting.
For example, I can imagine the North Carolina
legislature redrawing that state's congressional
districts in 2007 (assuming Democrats are in the
majority in 2007; the governorship is not up in 2006
and a Democrat is now governor). In 2004 Democrats
only won 6 of the state's 13 US House seats. Creative
redrawing should be able to get that up to 9 or 10.
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