Subject: predicting the votes in the Supreme Court in the Texas case
From: Rick Hasen
Date: 3/2/2006, 6:37 AM
To: election-law

So, from my reading of the second hand reports, it sounds like the Justices were leaning in the following directions:

1. No majority to find a partisan gerrymander (under equal protection, First Amendment, or any other clause of the Constitution) ---apparently this leaves Vieth in place, because it does not appear that Justice Kennedy was signalling he's ready to vote for nonjusticiablity
2. No majority to hold that mid-decade redistricting violates one person, one vote because of the failure to use updated census data
3. No majority to find a Shaw violation (maybe that gets only Justice Kennedy's vote)
4. A possible majority to hold that one or two districts violates section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, but no majority to hold that coalitional or influence disticts count for section 2 purposes (and a possible majority to affirmatively reject that stand).

Is is how those who attend the oral argument see things as going? 

Rick
-- 
Rick Hasen
William H. Hannon Distinguished Professor of Law
Loyola Law School
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