I don't agree with Ronald's analysis of "the most competitive" Texas
statewide race in 2002 as a basis for claiming a third of the Texas
congressional seats will come into play with a 5% vote swing.
Checking the
Texas SoS website, The margin of victory in the 2002 LT governor's
race was
5.74%, the next closest was the Commissioner of the General Land
Office at
11.68% and the average of eight statewide offices, including the Chief
Justice, was 16.79%. I rather doubt that the 2002 LT governor race is
representative of the underlying partisanship of Texas.
I agree, however, that a uniform vote swing model is most likely
incorrect(anyone who reads the fine print of the academic articles
by authors as
early as Tufte will see the caveats in this regard). Though, without
knowing where the qualified candidates and money are this far in
advance of
an election, it is the best that we can go on at this point.
Indeed, I
rather expect that the Democrats will do better in terms of their
overallvote totals simply on the fact that they are fielding more
candidates in
uncompetitive races -- races that would have previously been
uncontested by
a Democrat -- and Republicans are not fielding a like number in
uncompetitive Democratic districts.
I've heard it mentioned before that the "non-uniform" (for the lack
of a
better word) vote swings are concentrated in competitive races. I
wonder if
that is true. It could be just as likely that a larger amount of the
overall swing comes from second-tier competitive districts (because
thefavored party is fielding more qualified challengers than in other
elections) or from the uncompetitive districts (because any
challenger is
fielded). I suppose one could estimate the normal vote for a given
electionand then observe where the largest error occurs. Anyone
know of such a
study?
As for David's question, 7.5% does seem to be a large number (btw,
I mean
57.5% of the two-party vote), but I haven't done a similar study for
previous elections, so I can't say with authority how unusual it
is. But,
perhaps there is a paper worth writing here about where vote swings
areconcentrated that would produce the statistic as a by-product.
I am skeptical that Hispanic turnout is going to be much higher in
thiselection. Like it or not, midterm elections are low-turnout
affairs and
given the lower socio-economic status among Hispanics, they will
likely vote
at the low rates as they have done in previous elections. Even in
California, where Hispanics were organized and mobilized in the
1990s by
Prop. 187, 2004 CVAP turnout among Hispanics (from the CPS) was
46.9% while
among white non-Hispanics it was 70.6% (see:
http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/voting/cps2004/tab04a.xls,
plus my
calculations).
Finally, why incumbency is collapsing into uncompetitive seats is
that, as
Jacobson points out, there was a lot of sorting of mis-matched
incumbentsinto similar partisan-leaning districts in the last round
of redistricting.
------------
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Assistant Professor, George Mason University
Visiting Fellow, Brookings Institution
Mailing address:
(o) 703-993-4191 George Mason University
(f) 703-993-1399 Dept. of Public and International Affairs
mmcdon@gmu.edu 4400 University Drive - 3F4
http://elections.gmu.edu Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
-----Original Message-----
From: rkgaddie@ou.edu [rkgaddie@ou.edu]
Sent: Monday, May 22, 2006 5:37 PM
To: David Lublin
Cc: Michael McDonald; 'election-law'; owner-election-
law_gl@majordomo.lls.edu
Subject: Re: RE: Electionlawblog news and commentary 5/22/06
Good points made by David.
How much of that incumbency advantage is personal anymore?
Oppenheimer> points out that the incumbency advantage is collapsing
onto general party
safety in districts. Abramowitz has been tracking a similar
collapse of
congressional partisanship into presidential partisanship. The
exit poll
data in 2004 also confirm that the presidential vote and
congressional> vote are now generally structured by ideology. So,
if voters do go south
for Republicans, it may be that large numbers of seats have
sufficient> partisan capacity to weather the storm.
But, as David also points out, these will not be uniform swings .
. . I
would be concerned for Republicans in every district in
California, but
also in districts where there are large Latino, citizen
populations - say
the 3-10% range - that are undervoting. The current political
environment> makes this undermobilized electorate potent for a
general election with an
embattled GOP incumbent or a usually Republican open seat.
Even the districts in Texas showed a potential to swing
dramatically,> despite the nature of the gerrymander. The graphic
I attached shows the
seat swing from the 2002 LTGV in Texas (most competitive seat),
based on
uniform one-point shifts in the vote statewide (Alford and I
presented> similar graphics in our reports in 2003). About a third
of the seats in
Texas that are currently in GOP hands could come into play based
on a
five-point shift. There are structural biases, but they are
insufficient> to mitigate great political tides.
_____________________________
Ronald Keith Gaddie
Professor of Political Science
The University of Oklahoma
455 West Lindsey Street, Room 222
Norman, OK 73019-2001
Phone 405-325-4989
Fax 405-325-0718
E-mail: rkgaddie@ou.edu
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/G/Ronald.K.Gaddie-1