Subject: Re: RE: Query: Rules Governing TV Surveys
From: Michael P McDonald
Date: 6/21/2006, 6:36 PM
To: election-law@majordomo.lls.edu

There is a state that permits a vote for a "none of these candidates" option: Nevada.  In 2004, 3,688 or 0.44% of Nevada voters voted for "none of these candidates" for president, a reminder that some residual vote is true absention from an election.  This wasn't just a vote error, as these votes were more votes than those cast for three candidates appearing on the ballot (Badnarik at 0.38%, Cobb at 0.10%, and Peroutka at 0.14%) and almost as many votes as for Nader at 0.58%.

See: http://sos.state.nv.us/nvelection/2004General/ElectionSummary.htm

Michael P. McDonald
Assistant Professor, George Mason University
Visiting Fellow, Brookings Institution

703-993-4191
mmcdon@gmu.edu
elections.gmu.edu

----- Original Message -----
From: Douglas Johnson <djohnson@NDCresearch.com>
Date: Wednesday, June 21, 2006 7:04 pm
Subject: RE: Query: Rules Governing TV Surveys

Many voters in exit polls and phone surveys say they would prefer 
"Noneof the Above" or, lacking that, a generic "someone else", if 
they are
given that option. This is a very different response than saying they
support one of the other candidates in the race.

I suspect that another potential factor may be that Rasmussen may 
not be
offering an "undecided" option, or they may encourage undecided voters
to declare which candidate they are "leaning" toward. In that case,
undecideds may resist that effort by choosing the "Someone Else" 
option.
High-propensity voters choosing stating a "None of the Above" or
"Someone Else" preference usually will move to one of the
perceived-as-leading candidates on election day. Low-propensity voters
stating "None of the Above" or "Someone Else" will often simply 
not vote
on election day.

I have not checked, but I suspect the PPIC and Field surveys 
leading up
to California's 2003 Recall election of Arnold Schwarzenegger may show
this trend. And that election also points out the flaw in the "include
all candidates" idea: there were something lik 135 candidates for
Governor on the 2003 ballot. Any poll attempting to list them all -
- or
even 20 of them -- would have lost the attention of so many 
respondentsas to become factually incorrect about the leading 
candidate numbers.

As a side note, I have heard that in countries where "none of the 
above"is an option or where the winner is required to get a 
majority of vote
slips turned in, "None of the Above" or blank ballots are said to have
led to no one winning in some rare elections. Unfortunately I 
can't cite
specifics, only reports I've heard from others in the political
consulting world, but others on this listserv may know of specific
examples of this.

Hope that helps,

- Doug

Douglas Johnson