People familiar with Kim Brace's recent apportionment projections may recognize the significance of the numbers in the subject line.

I have to quibble a bit with Kim's report. Kim used the July 1, 2010 ESRI estimates to project the apportionment of congressional seats. The problem is that we use the April 1, 2010 population, not the July 1, 2010 population for apportionment. I estimated the April 1, 2010 population by linearly interpolating ESRI's July 1, 2009 and July 1, 2010 estimate to April 1, 2010. When I do, I find the stats in the subject line. New York does not lose 2 seats, as Kim claims, it only loses one. Florida still gains a second seat, but at the expense of Texas. And Missouri still loses a seat while Minnesota does not.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/congressional-apportionme_b_744190.html

I hope I'm still invited to your Halloween Party, Kim.

============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University 
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

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