In preparation for my presentation at Monday's Brookings 2010 election forum, I have created this webpage trying to sort out on a state-by-state basis the three-dimensional chess game that is apportionment, redistricting, and the 2010 elections.  I'd appreciate any feedback (feel free to do so off-list), since I challenge the conventional wisdom that Republicans will be able to use redistricting to expand the number of seats beyond their 2010 victories to create a permanent Republican majority for the decade. Rather, I think that they will max out the number of seats that they can win and, because of the recent electoral volatility, seek to protect their 2010 gains. There are only a few states where Republicans may have an opportunity to expand the number of districts that they are favored in. Further, the potential gains assume the most rosey election scenario for Republicans, which may not come to pass.

 

http://www.publicmapping.org/redistricting-forecast

 

As I was putting together the spreadsheet for this congressional redistricting forecast (available on the webpage provided above), I realized that there is a very simple way to convey apportionment forecasts that I hope Kim will implement in the future. Instead of creating a map with a big "-2" plastered over New York, create a map with a "-1 or -2" to better convey the uncertainty of the estimates. Indeed, do this throughout the apportionment report since some reporters tend to latch on to big bold font numbers (not all reporters! some actually read the report and were sophisticated when writing their stories). The trick will be to create a reasonable measure of the uncertainty of the population estimates. There are several different population estimate trend lines and now two data sources to construct such a measure of uncertainty. The downside with this approach is that the ESRI-based report really would have been nothing new and not worthy of generating press about since the apportionment forecasts would not have changed. I try to make this clear near the end of my posting where I say ,"Further, states on the knife's edge will gain or lose a congressional seat by thousands of persons -- well within the uncertainty of these population estimates. So, take this analysis and the EDS analysis with the appropriate large grain of salt."

 

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Dr. Michael P. McDonald

Associate Professor, George Mason University

Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

 

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