Subject: Re: [EL] Early Voting Stats
From: Paul Gronke
Date: 10/11/2010, 1:27 PM
To: Election Law

I would agree with Michael--it is too early to interpret these early  
figures.    I even wish he has not written "tantalizing tidbits" below  
since it is so early in the early voting process.

What will become a potential story (and a potentially misleading on)  
is when, as will almost certainly be the case, the GOP shows leads in  
no-excuse absentee states.

This is exactly what would be expected given past patterns of ballot  
return by Democratic, Independent, and Republican affiliated voters.   
It is only when we have substantial numbers of early in-person votes  
recorded that we will be able to make statements about how the  
enthusiasm gap may or may not be reflected in the early voting  
statistics.

P.S. Absentee ballot return information is available in Clark County,  
NV and Florida, also.
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Paul Gronke                Ph:  503-517-7393
			               Fax: 734-661-0801

Professor, Reed College
Director, Early Voting Information Center 3203 SE Woodstock Blvd.
Portland OR 97202

EVIC: http://earlyvoting.net