I would agree with Michael--it is too early to interpret these early
figures. I even wish he has not written "tantalizing tidbits" below
since it is so early in the early voting process.
What will become a potential story (and a potentially misleading on)
is when, as will almost certainly be the case, the GOP shows leads in
no-excuse absentee states.
This is exactly what would be expected given past patterns of ballot
return by Democratic, Independent, and Republican affiliated voters.
It is only when we have substantial numbers of early in-person votes
recorded that we will be able to make statements about how the
enthusiasm gap may or may not be reflected in the early voting
statistics.
P.S. Absentee ballot return information is available in Clark County,
NV and Florida, also.
---
Paul Gronke Ph: 503-517-7393
Fax: 734-661-0801
Professor, Reed College
Director, Early Voting Information Center 3203 SE Woodstock Blvd.
Portland OR 97202
EVIC: http://earlyvoting.net