Nate YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS COMPARISON!
This is so frustrating--if Molly had even read a bit of the research in this area, she, and you, would have learned that Republicans have LONG cast the "earliest" of the early votes.
GOP voters have long leaned toward absentee ballots, and many of the states listed above (CA, AZ, CO, IA) are almost complete no excuse absentee ballots, which you (and Molly) are lumping in with early in person ballots.
We have no documentary evidence that compares the early voter turnout measured more than a week before the election with the eventual early voting turnout, the final turnout, or the registration numbers. Michael McDonald's quote in the Politico story is dead on: "The large gap could be a red herring ... we are in uncharted territory."
There is no "value" in looking at these early numbers if they are misinterpreted as indicating more than anyone can possibly interpret. The only meaningful piece of information in the Politico story is the comment about the GOP in Florida leading in the EARLY IN PERSON ballots. That is a real piece of news. The rest of this is really just unjustified speculation.---
Paul Gronke Ph: 503-517-7393
Fax: 734-661-0801
Professor, Reed College
Director, Early Voting Information Center
3203 SE Woodstock Blvd
Portland, OR 97202
EVIC:
http://earlyvoting.netOn Oct 24, 2010, at 7:40 PM, Scarberry, Mark wrote:
Nate Silver on early voting stats:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/early-voter-enthusiasm-gap-appears-consistent-with-polls/?hp
Mark Scarberry
Pepperdine
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