Subject: Re: [EL] more news 10/29/10
From: "Bonin, Adam C." <ABonin@cozen.com>
Date: 10/29/2010, 2:14 PM
To: "rick.hasen@lls.edu" <rick.hasen@lls.edu>, Election Law <election-law@mailman.lls.edu>

Rick asks: "How do those who complain about redistricting leading to non-competitive elections explain the last decade in the House? If it is about unprecedented partisanship, when is that supposed to ebb?"

Here's a theory and I have no data to support (or discredit) it, but it's a Friday before an Election Day so I think my burden of proof just has to be at an Iqbal level of plausibility: I wonder whether it's the case that all things being equal, elections become more competitive the further into the decennial redistricting cycle one goes (in multi-district states subject to a partisan redistricting process) as the assumptions upon which the lines were drawn are gradually undermined.  To the extent lines are drawn to protect incumbents, they're increasingly less protected as political trends and demographics change over the course of a decade.

I take Pennsylvania as an example: Curt Weldon and Jim Greenwood were deemed to be safe incumbents, so PA-7 and PA-8 were drawn as to give them extra pockets of Dem voters whom they could safely absorb without electoral risk.  In Weldon's case, that enabled the creation of PA-6 as a new district for Jim Gerlach which was just-barely-R-enough for an R to win in the Phila suburbs; with Greenwood, that allowed the creation of PA-13 smushing together two Dem incumbents (Borski, Hoeffel) who were predicted to bludgeon each other in a primary and allow a moderate Republican to take back what was perceived to be a swing district. (This was, before Hoeffel, Marjorie Margolies' district.)

It didn't work out that way.  The seats which were "supposed" to be safe became competitive; the ones which were presumed competitive became safe.  In order:

2002: Borski decides not to run in the primary, and Hoeffel holds PA-13 in a tight race.  Gerlach wins a tight race.

2004:  Greenwood retires young; Mike Fitzpatrick retains district as Republican against weak competition.  Hoeffel leaves PA-13 to run for Senate; Allyson Schwartz retains as D and becomes fundraising powerhouse. Gerlach wins a tight race.

 

2006: Scandal-plague Weldon gets thumped by Joe Sestak by 10+ points; Patrick Murphy defeats Mike Fitzpatrick on the basis of the non-Bucks County Democratic precincts added to the district when it was thought Greenwood was safe; Gerlach wins a tight race, and Allyson Schwartz wins easily.

 

2008: Sestak, Murphy and Schwartz retain easily; Gerlach wins a tight race.

 

2010: Gerlach and Schwartz will win (in her case, easily); Murphy and Lentz (running to replace Sestak) both in nailbiters.

 

 

Adam C. Bonin | Cozen O'Connor
1900 Market Street | Philadelphia, PA, 19103 | P: 215.665.2051 | F: 215.701.2321
abonin@cozen.com 
| www.cozen.com

 

 

 



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From: election-law-bounces@mailman.lls.edu [mailto:election-law-bounces@mailman.lls.edu] On Behalf Of Rick Hasen
Sent: Friday, October 29, 2010 4:50 PM
To: Election Law
Subject: [EL] more news 10/29/10

 

October 29, 2010

Federal District Court in Maryland Rules that Rights of Military Voters to Have Their Votes Counted Trumps Nov. 12 Ballot Receipt Deadline

See here (via Election Law Center). It will be interesting to see if this ruling stands on appeal.

Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:41 PM

"Dem Prevents Civil Rights Panel Vote On New Black Panther Report (VIDEO)"

TPM reports. No word on whether Tom DeLay can track him down for a quorum call.

Here is a draft copy of the Commission's report, leaked to TPM.

More on the walkout from the Washington Post.

Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:37 PM

"TV Spending Surges in State Supreme Court Races"

Don't miss this press release on the spending in judicial elections.

Earlier this week, Dahlia Lithwick and I offered a scary tour through the most negative judicial campaign ads of the current cycle. As of today, nearly half of the 800 voters on the ads have chosen our bonus feature, "Spouses Gone Wild!," as the scariest video. But this brand new radio ad (out after our Slate piece was completed) by Alabama Justice Tom Parker is pretty scary too. In the ad, Justice Parker compares the federal district judge who decided the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" case to Al Qaeda.

Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:29 PM

Audio of ACS Event on Legal Issues to Watch in the 2010 Elections Now Available

Following up on a post about this event featuring Eugene Lee, Liz Neubaer, Steve Reyes, and me (moderated by Justin Levitt), you can now listen to the audio.

Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:17 PM

Would You Like Fries with that Ballot?

McDonald's workers complain about GOP handbills with their paychecks.

Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:12 PM

"NC GOP sues election board over voting machines"

AP offers this report.

Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:47 AM

"Roberts Court rulings on campaign finance reveal shifting makeup, forceful role"

The Washington Post offers this extensive report.

Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:22 AM

What's Worse?

Being a political scientist or a lawyer?

Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:05 AM

"Voter Fraud Fears Become Latest Partisan Issue"

The Washington Post offers this important report.

Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:21 AM

Just Wondering Department

How do those who complain about redistricting leading to non-competitive elections explain the last decade in the House? If it is about unprecedented partisanship, when is that supposed to ebb?

Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:10 AM

"Instant Runoff Voting as a 'Game Changing' Alternative Voting System?"

Kevin Oles has written this commentary for Moritz.

Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:19 AM

Beer for Votes?

Byron Tau reports.

Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:10 AM

"Essential Research Needed to Support UOCAVA-MOVE Act: Implementation at the State and Local Levels"

Candice Hoke and Matt Bishop have posted this draft on SSRN. Here is the abstract:

Congress's most recent effort to enable overseas and military voters to cast valid, timely ballots imposed a large number of complex tasks on State and local election administration. By federal mandates, preemptive provisions, and severely constrained implementation timetables, the MOVE Act requires State and local election administration officials to offer Internet transmission of specified services including voter registration and blank ballots. However, Internet-connected election equipment presents many dangers to overseas voters’ ballots and to accurate election totals. Authenticating overseas voters, assuring that they receive only a correct and authentic electronic ballot, guaranteeing vote privacy, maintaining the integrity of the ballots during marking, transmission, storage and canvass, and other essential objectives of election security, are much more difficult -- not less -- when vote transaction data must traverse the Internet. With appropriate infrastructure, however, election offices can reliably serve overseas voters with at least some Internet-transmitted election materials. Achieving reliability, however, requires substantial expert technical services, ongoing staffing and training, and appropriate computer equipment, software, network services, and testing protocols. To avoid repeating the electoral disruptions and injury to public confidence that followed the last federally-induced embrace of problematic computer technologies (paperless electronic precinct voting machines), this paper recommends that Federal assumptions about State and local technical readiness be temporarily set aside. Sound empirical data (that can be anonymized) are needed to document the currently available technical and security infrastructure and changes to that infrastructure which are still needed for MOVE Act full implementation. If Federal election policies and "best practices" continue to be formulated for overseas absentee voting without sound baseline knowledge of existing technical conditions, expertise, and resources, serious election difficulties and inequities are likely to arise. These include (1) Federal Phase-In Planning and Support Errors arising from erroneous readiness assumptions; (2) Insufficient Budgetary Allocations for initial and ongoing technical and security management; (3) Inability to Achieve Voter Privacy, Security, and Reliability Objectives, and thereafter, (4) the likelihood of Unfair Accusations Against Election Officials for not achieving the mandated objectives. To ensure full implementation of the Act and achievement of its objectives, federal agencies, other funding entities, and State and local election administrators should collaboratively support independent research to document both the status quo and needed technical infrastructure.

 

Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:04 AM

 
-- 
Rick Hasen
William H. Hannon Distinguished Professor of Law
Loyola Law School
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