The Indiana Libertarian Party did very well overall in 2010. The Libertarian Party is the only party on the ballot in Indiana other than the two major parties. The Libertarian nominee for US Senate in Indiana yesterday got 5.3%, and the Libertarian running for Secretary of State got over 6%. Indiana has a straight-ticket device and those two offices were at the top of the ballot. Therefore, it is not remarkable that the Libertarian running for US House in the 2nd district got 5.0%. He probably would have got that without any Democratic Party advertising for him.
The same Libertarian ran for US House, 2nd district, in 2008 as well. With Bob Barr at the head of the Libertarian ticket in 2008, getting 1.1% of the presidential vote, that was a (relatively speaking) drag on the whole Libertarian ticket, but Mark Vogel got
2.7% for US House in 2008 in the 2nd district.
--- On Wed, 11/3/10, Ed Feigenbaum <EDF@ingrouponline.com> wrote:
From: Ed Feigenbaum <EDF@ingrouponline.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] Third Party Effects
To: "Election Law" <election-law@mailman.lls.edu>
Cc: richardwinger@yahoo.com, "Lloyd Mayer" <lmayer@nd.edu>
Date: Wednesday, November 3, 2010, 7:39 AM
Couldn't resist weighing in on the colloquy between Lloyd and
Richard, with specific reference to the CD 02 race in Indiana.
Over the final weekend, the Indiana Democratic Party spent some
$15,000 on a mailer to about 20,000 carefully screened CD 02
households. The mailer, clearly identified in several places as paid
for by the Indiana Democratic Party, touted the virtually unknown
Libertarian in the race, Mark Vogel, as the true conservative or the
most conservative candidate in the race (they did the same in the
previous week for the LP nominee in the closely contested CD 09).
A peek at the mailer can be found on this TV station web site or at
the LP candidate's site:
http://www.indianasnewscenter.com/news/local/Libertarian-Party-of-Indiana-Denounces-Democrat-Tactics-106401384.html
http://vogel4congress.com/?p=216
Libertarians professed to be grossly offended (see the release
below), but, when pressed in TV interviews, acknowledged that it
would likely end up helping their candidates.
http://lpin.org/2010/10/31/press-release-indiana-democratic-party-endorses-libertarian-mark-vogel-for-congress-in-new-mailer/
They also talked about filing an FEC complaint, but must have
realized that with the disclaimer requirements being fulfilled,
there was nothing to pursue.
An interesting oddity that may have helped put Democratic
Congressman Donnelly over the top, given the margin that Lloyd
pointed out.
--Ed
I hope everyone will
bear in mind that the evidence frequently contradicts the
conventional wisdom about "spoilers" and Libertarians
automatically hurting Republicans, and Greens
automatically hurting Democrats.
Neutral, professional polls this year in Nevada sometimes
asked people about their intentions for US Senate if the
Tea Party weren't on the ballot, and the results were that
Tea Party voters were just as likely to vote for Harry
Reid as Sharron Angle.
Political science research set forth in Sam Lubell's
"Future of American Politics" showed that in 1948, Harry
Truman would have lost if Henry Wallace had not run
against him as the Progressive Party nominee.
The recent best-seller "Predictably Irrational" used
experimental research to explain why the conventional
wisdom about making choices is wrong.
Both poll data, and election returns data, shows that
Ralph Nader did not injure John Kerry in 2004.
There is also hard election results data showing that
Libertarians do not injure Republicans.
--- On Wed, 11/3/10, Lloyd Mayer <lmayer@nd.edu>
wrote:
From: Lloyd Mayer <lmayer@nd.edu>
Subject: [EL] Third Party Effects
To: "Rick Hasen" <Rick.Hasen@lls.edu>, "Election
Law" <election-law@mailman.lls.edu>
Date: Wednesday, November 3, 2010, 5:29 AM
Questions for Tomorrow
How did Independents and third party candidates
do, did their presence
affect any D-R races, and what of "none of the
above" in Nevada? What
we know now is that independent Chafee won the
R.I. gubernatorial race,
Tancredo lost in Colorado, None of the above is
polling under two percent in
the Reid-Angle race, but it is doing much better
than the "Tea Party"
candidate in that race (who some allege was put
there by Democrats to take
votes away from Angle.)
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