Conversely, and I think this was the point that Dan was trying
to make, is that turnout will be higher in 2012 and the electorate will be much
different...younger, more minorities, more poor people, i.e., as Pew noted
about non-voters, more Democrats.
============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Mailing address:
(o) 703-993-4191
George
Mason University
(f)
703-993-1399
Dept. of Public and International Affairs
As Curtis Gans notes, and I would add - midterm turnout
rates have dropped in comparison to turnout in the preceding presidential
election for 170 years. According to the CPS, as a percentage of the
immediately preceding presidential election, turnout dropped 27 percent in
1998, and 28 percent in 2002, and 33 percent in 2006. With respect to
trends in midterm voting and the relationship between midterms and their
immediately preceding presidential elections, the growth in turnout in 2010
compared to 2006 is significant, but drop-off, at about 32 percent is
not. See the research memo I wrote for Project Vote for more analysis:
http://www.projectvote.org/blog/?p=1045.
I will have more to say about this in a few days.
Lori Minnite
On 11/3/10 10:10 AM, Dan Johnson-Weinberger wrote:
Thanks Michael.
132.6 million voted in 2008
90.1 million voted yesterday.
That's a drop in the size of the American electorate of
almost a third.
Dan
On Wed, Nov 3, 2010 at 3:18 AM, Michael McDonald <
mmcdon@gmu.edu> wrote:
Below
is a link to my turnout estimates based on the vote counted to date and the
outstanding vote as projected by the Associated Press. There is still some
uncertainty to these estimates, especially for the high mail ballot states. I
forecasted a turnout rate of 41.3% for those eligible to vote and the estimated
turnout so far is 41.4%. In raw numbers, 90.1 million votes forecasted
and 90.2 million votes estimated from actual election results. There is, of
course, error among the states that happened to have a mean close to zero.
============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason
University
Non-Resident Senior Fellow,
Brookings Institution
Mailing address:
(o) 703-993-4191
George
Mason University
(f) 703-993-1399
Dept. of Public and International Affairs
--
Dan Johnson-Weinberger
Attorney at Law
111 West Washington, Suite 1920
Chicago, Illinois 60602
312.867.5377 (office)
312.933.4890 (mobile)
312.794.7064 (fax)
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