Dan
I agree but I don't think "systemic shrinking" is the right phrase
because it suggests a linear trend. The trend is upwards, but a
"seesaw" is a more apt description.
The big question raised above, of course, is what the candidate /
issue preferences will be among those younger, Latino, and poorer
voters will be in 2012. How much are they in play, how much will this
lead to a big swing back blue? And how much can our system endure
these massive swings (if another occurs)?
On Wed, Nov 3, 2010 at 8:49 AM, Dan Johnson-Weinberger
<dan.johnsonweinberger@gmail.com> wrote:
Thanks Mike.
I think the point is that it's easy to lose sight of the significance of the
systemic shrinking of the electorate because we academics, operatives and
pundits are used to it. I find that most non-professional people are
surprised by how dramatic the reduction of the size of the electorate is.
As we try to understand why the Republican wave of 2010 hit (rejection of
federal spending as a method of economic recovery, Citizens United spending
by presumably corporate interests, etc.), let's not lose sight of the impact
of 42 million Americans not showing up. It's a big deal.
And, perhaps more importantly, it's disconcerting. There's something wrong
about systemically losing a third of the electorate (no matter how they
vote).
Dan
On Wed, Nov 3, 2010 at 10:39 AM, Michael McDonald <mmcdon@gmu.edu> wrote:
Conversely, and I think this was the point that Dan was trying to make, is
that turnout will be higher in 2012 and the electorate will be much
different...younger, more minorities, more poor people, i.e., as Pew noted
about non-voters, more Democrats.
============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Mailing address:
(o) 703-993-4191 George Mason University
(f) 703-993-1399 Dept. of Public and International Affairs
mmcdon@gmu.edu 4400 University Drive - 3F4
http://elections.gmu.edu Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
From: election-law-bounces@mailman.lls.edu
[mailto:election-law-bounces@mailman.lls.edu] On Behalf Of Lorraine C.
Minnite
Sent: Wednesday, November 03, 2010 11:12 AM
To: election-law@mailman.lls.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] 2010 turnout estimates
As Curtis Gans notes, and I would add - midterm turnout rates have dropped
in comparison to turnout in the preceding presidential election for 170
years. According to the CPS, as a percentage of the immediately preceding
presidential election, turnout dropped 27 percent in 1998, and 28 percent in
2002, and 33 percent in 2006. With respect to trends in midterm voting and
the relationship between midterms and their immediately preceding
presidential elections, the growth in turnout in 2010 compared to 2006 is
significant, but drop-off, at about 32 percent is not. See the research
memo I wrote for Project Vote for more analysis:
http://www.projectvote.org/blog/?p=1045. I will have more to say about this
in a few days.
Lori Minnite
On 11/3/10 10:10 AM, Dan Johnson-Weinberger wrote:
Thanks Michael.
132.6 million voted in 2008
90.1 million voted yesterday.
That's a drop in the size of the American electorate of almost a third.
Dan
On Wed, Nov 3, 2010 at 3:18 AM, Michael McDonald <mmcdon@gmu.edu> wrote:
Below is a link to my turnout estimates based on the vote counted to date
and the outstanding vote as projected by the Associated Press. There is
still some uncertainty to these estimates, especially for the high mail
ballot states. I forecasted a turnout rate of 41.3% for those eligible to
vote and the estimated turnout so far is 41.4%. In raw numbers, 90.1
million votes forecasted and 90.2 million votes estimated from actual
election results. There is, of course, error among the states that happened
to have a mean close to zero.
See: http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2010G.html
============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Mailing address:
(o) 703-993-4191 George Mason University
(f) 703-993-1399 Dept. of Public and International Affairs
mmcdon@gmu.edu 4400 University Drive - 3F4
http://elections.gmu.edu Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
_______________________________________________
election-law mailing list
election-law@mailman.lls.edu
http://mailman.lls.edu/mailman/listinfo/election-law
--
Dan Johnson-Weinberger
Attorney at Law
111 West Washington, Suite 1920
Chicago, Illinois 60602
312.867.5377 (office)
312.933.4890 (mobile)
312.794.7064 (fax)
_______________________________________________
election-law mailing list
election-law@mailman.lls.edu
http://mailman.lls.edu/mailman/listinfo/election-law
_______________________________________________
election-law mailing list
election-law@mailman.lls.edu
http://mailman.lls.edu/mailman/listinfo/election-law
--
Dan Johnson-Weinberger
Attorney at Law
111 West Washington, Suite 1920
Chicago, Illinois 60602
312.867.5377 (office)
312.933.4890 (mobile)
312.794.7064 (fax)
_______________________________________________
election-law mailing list
election-law@mailman.lls.edu
http://mailman.lls.edu/mailman/listinfo/election-law