Conversely, and I think this was the point that Dan was trying to make, is that turnout will be higher in 2012 and the electorate will be much different...younger, more minorities, more poor people, i.e., as Pew noted about non-voters, more Democrats.

 

============

Dr. Michael P. McDonald

Associate Professor, George Mason University

Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

 

                             Mailing address:

(o) 703-993-4191             George Mason University

(f) 703-993-1399             Dept. of Public and International Affairs

mmcdon@gmu.edu               4400 University Drive - 3F4

http://elections.gmu.edu     Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

 

From: election-law-bounces@mailman.lls.edu [mailto:election-law-bounces@mailman.lls.edu] On Behalf Of Lorraine C. Minnite
Sent: Wednesday, November 03, 2010 11:12 AM
To: election-law@mailman.lls.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] 2010 turnout estimates

 

As Curtis Gans notes, and I would add - midterm turnout rates have dropped in comparison to turnout in the preceding presidential election for 170 years.  According to the CPS, as a percentage of the immediately preceding presidential election, turnout dropped 27 percent in 1998, and 28 percent in 2002, and 33 percent in 2006.  With respect to trends in midterm voting and the relationship between midterms and their immediately preceding presidential elections, the growth in turnout in 2010 compared to 2006 is significant, but drop-off, at about 32 percent is not.  See the research memo I wrote for Project Vote for more analysis: http://www.projectvote.org/blog/?p=1045.  I will have more to say about this in a few days.

Lori Minnite

On 11/3/10 10:10 AM, Dan Johnson-Weinberger wrote:

Thanks Michael.

 

132.6 million voted in 2008

90.1 million voted yesterday.

 

That's a drop in the size of the American electorate of almost a third.

 

Dan

On Wed, Nov 3, 2010 at 3:18 AM, Michael McDonald <mmcdon@gmu.edu> wrote:

Below is a link to my turnout estimates based on the vote counted to date and the outstanding vote as projected by the Associated Press. There is still some uncertainty to these estimates, especially for the high mail ballot states. I forecasted a turnout rate of 41.3% for those eligible to vote and the estimated turnout so far is 41.4%.  In raw numbers, 90.1 million votes forecasted and 90.2 million votes estimated from actual election results. There is, of course, error among the states that happened to have a mean close to zero.

 

See: http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2010G.html

 

============

Dr. Michael P. McDonald

Associate Professor, George Mason University

Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

 

                             Mailing address:

(o) 703-993-4191             George Mason University

(f) 703-993-1399             Dept. of Public and International Affairs

mmcdon@gmu.edu               4400 University Drive - 3F4

http://elections.gmu.edu     Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

 

_______________________________________________
election-law mailing list
election-law@mailman.lls.edu
http://mailman.lls.edu/mailman/listinfo/election-law

--
Dan Johnson-Weinberger

Attorney at Law
111 West Washington, Suite 1920
Chicago, Illinois 60602

312.867.5377 (office)
312.933.4890 (mobile)
312.794.7064 (fax)

_______________________________________________

election-law mailing list

election-law@mailman.lls.edu

http://mailman.lls.edu/mailman/listinfo/election-law

_______________________________________________
election-law mailing list
election-law@mailman.lls.edu
http://mailman.lls.edu/mailman/listinfo/election-law