Subject: Re: [EL] 2010 turnout estimates
From: "Lorraine C. Minnite" <lminnite@gmail.com>
Date: 11/3/2010, 8:11 AM
To: "election-law@mailman.lls.edu" <election-law@mailman.lls.edu>

As Curtis Gans notes, and I would add - midterm turnout rates have dropped in comparison to turnout in the preceding presidential election for 170 years.  According to the CPS, as a percentage of the immediately preceding presidential election, turnout dropped 27 percent in 1998, and 28 percent in 2002, and 33 percent in 2006.  With respect to trends in midterm voting and the relationship between midterms and their immediately preceding presidential elections, the growth in turnout in 2010 compared to 2006 is significant, but drop-off, at about 32 percent is not.  See the research memo I wrote for Project Vote for more analysis: http://www.projectvote.org/blog/?p=1045.  I will have more to say about this in a few days.

Lori Minnite

On 11/3/10 10:10 AM, Dan Johnson-Weinberger wrote:
Thanks Michael.

132.6 million voted in 2008
90.1 million voted yesterday.

That's a drop in the size of the American electorate of almost a third.

Dan

On Wed, Nov 3, 2010 at 3:18 AM, Michael McDonald <mmcdon@gmu.edu> wrote:

Below is a link to my turnout estimates based on the vote counted to date and the outstanding vote as projected by the Associated Press. There is still some uncertainty to these estimates, especially for the high mail ballot states. I forecasted a turnout rate of 41.3% for those eligible to vote and the estimated turnout so far is 41.4%.  In raw numbers, 90.1 million votes forecasted and 90.2 million votes estimated from actual election results. There is, of course, error among the states that happened to have a mean close to zero.

 

See: http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2010G.html

 

============

Dr. Michael P. McDonald

Associate Professor, George Mason University

Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

 

                             Mailing address:

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mmcdon@gmu.edu               4400 University Drive - 3F4

http://elections.gmu.edu     Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

 


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