[EL] ELB News and Commentary 8/1/11

[Justin Levitt]

Not really.

It does reinforce the point that Georgia's increase in turnout doesn't 
mean much on its own, despite repeated 
<http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2011-06-12-ID-laws-ensure-election-integrity_n.htm> 
assertions 
<http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2011/apr/04/bill-batchelder/ohio-house-speaker-william-g-batchelder-says-georg/> 
to the contrary 
<http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43156562/ns/politics-decision_2012/t/voter-id-debate-could-change-landscape/>.  
So at least that's a bonus.

But before mentioning the stats, the editorial 
<http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2011/08/01/2494688/stop-the-shenanigans-over-the.html> 
quotes Bob Hall as saying "It's tough to isolate what factors influence 
changes in voter turnout," which is the real takeaway 
<http://www.brennancenter.org/blog/archives/still_jumping_to_conclusions/>.  
Until you've got enough elections to be able to screen out the impact of 
downballot candidates, campaign mobilization, different media 
environments, pollsite logistics, other legal changes, and -- heck -- 
the weather on Election Day, it's really hard to use turnout to assess 
the impact of an ID bill.

Put differently: Let's say that it took me 30 minutes to drive to work 
this morning.  I used to have a bicycle, and on this day last year, it 
took me 45 minutes to get to work. My neighbor took the bus, and it took 
him 15 minutes to get to work this morning.   Did the car make the 
difference?  Without a whole lot more information, _you can't possibly 
know_.

Justin

On 8/1/2011 8:29 AM, Daniel Tokaji wrote:
> *"Stop the Shenanigans over the Voter ID Bill" 
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=21170> *
>
> Posted onAugust 1, 2011 <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=21170> by Dan 
> Tokaji <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>
>
> The Charlotte Observer editorializes here 
> <http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2011/08/01/2494688/stop-the-shenanigans-over-the.html> 
> against Republican efforts to enact a photo ID requirement, so far 
> stymied by Democratic Governor Bev Perdue's veto.  The editorial 
> relies in part on data <http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html> 
> from Michael McDonald's U.S. Elections Project 
> <http://elections.gmu.edu/index.html>, showing that North Carolina 
> (which didn't have a photo ID requirement in 2008) had a larger 
> increase in turnout than Georgia (which did).  A fair comparison?
>
> Description: Share 
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> Posted invoter id <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=9> |Comments Off |
>
>

-- 
Justin Levitt
Associate Professor of Law
Loyola Law School | Los Angeles
919 Albany St.
Los Angeles, CA  90015
213-736-7417
justin.levitt at lls.edu
ssrn.com/author=698321

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