[EL] RE : Lessons from latest Iowa caucus polls: 6 frontrunners between 17% & 11% / RNC guide to allocation rules

[Rob Richie]

Florida lost half its convention delegates by moving its primary to
January, as did other states like NH and SC. But unless there's been a
recent change, it received no additional penalty for holding a statewide
winner-take-all contest for its delegates -- something that may well invite
a challenge. It may turn on how contested this all becomes.

- Rob Richie

On Fri, Dec 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM, Vallet, Élisabeth <
vallet.elisabeth at uqam.ca> wrote:

> **
>
> Just want to make sure that I understand: there won't be any sanction
> against the Florida delegation despite the new rules? How come?
> Thanks Elisabeth
>
> Élisabeth Vallet, Ph.D
> UQAM
> vallet.elisabeth at uqam.ca
> http://usa.hypotheses.org
>
>
> -------- Message d'origine--------
> De: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu de la part de Rob Richie
> Date: jeu. 2011-12-29 17:21
> À: Election Law
> Objet : [EL] Lessons from latest Iowa caucus polls: 6 frontrunners between
> 17% & 11% / RNC guide to allocation rules
>
> Polls are volatile right now, and the Des Moines Register poll isn't coming
> out until Sunday.
>
> But that said,, check out the latest Insider Advantage poll: Paul, Romney
> and Gingrich all with 17%, and three other candidates with at least 11%.
> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdv_Iowa_1229.pdf
>
> As the media huffs and puffs about Iowa, keep in mind that if one candidate
> gets 21% and another 20%, the "winner" and the "loser" likely will earn the
> same number of delegates. That's true in New Hampshire too. And without
> instant runoff voting, we won't know if the "winner" in fact might have
> been defeated decisively if paired against his or her strongest opponent.
>
> Noe that South Carolina and Florida are the only states in January-March
> contests that are sure to award all their delegates on a statewide
> winner-take-all basis (without penalty, I might add, despite the 2010 rule
> change designed to allow more states to cast meaningful votes). So in those
> states, it really will be important to win -- in the other early contests,
> winning statewide is mostly just hype.
>
> The RNC has a useful guide to how state parties are allocating delegates
> here:
>
> http://global.nationalreview.com/dest/2011/12/23/2012_RNC_Delegate_Summary_32b0d429d50bfaf71e86b156401b5f04.pdf
>
> - Rob
>
> --
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> "Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"
>
> Rob Richie
> Executive Director
>
> FairVote
> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
> Takoma Park, MD 20912
> www.fairvote.org  <http://www.fairvote.org> rr at fairvote.org
> (301) 270-4616
>
> Please support FairVote through action and tax-deductible donations -- see
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>


-- 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"

Rob Richie
Executive Director

FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
www.fairvote.org  <http://www.fairvote.org> rr at fairvote.org
(301) 270-4616

Please support FairVote through action and tax-deductible donations -- see
http://fairvote.org/donate. For federal employees, please consider  a gift
to us through the Combined Federal Campaign (FairVote's  CFC number is
10132.) Thank you!
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