[EL] Herman Cain and Black Democrats

[Lowenstein, Daniel]

            I believe about half the states use one form or another of open primaries.  After the states that use presidential nominating caucuses instead of primaries are subtracted, I'm not sure of the percentage of open-primary states remaining, but it is surely significant.  One aspect of the Republican contest I have not heard discussed is the possibility that black Democrats in open-primary states might vote for Cain in the Republican primary.

            I believe there is some research showing many African-Americans dislike black Republicans more than they dislike white Republicans.  I don't know how robust that research is, but surely it is not the case for all or nearly all African-Americans.  For those who lack such antipathy, there is still the question whether they would be motivated enough to vote and, if so, whether they'd overcome a variety of possible reasons for reluctance to vote in a Republican primary.  Still, whatever other effects Cain's scandal may have, I can imagine it might heighten the motivation of black Democrats who'd like to see the Republicans nominate a black candidate.

            I'd appreciate the thoughts of others, especially any thoughts supported by research.

           By the way, Rasmussen finds Cain leading Romney by 33% - 23% among likely Republican voters in South Carolina in a survey conducted last night, after two days of the scandal and Cain's somewhat inept responses rattling around.  I am by no means predicting that Cain has sufficient legs to make a serious run at the nomination, but I find the South Carolina result impressive.


                                                    Best,

                                                    Daniel Lowenstein
                                                    Director
                                                    UCLA Center for the Liberal Arts and Free Institutions (CLAFI)
                                                    310-825-5148
                                                    lowenstein at law.ucla.edu<mailto:lowenstein at law.ucla.edu>

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