[EL] Herman Cain and Black Democrats

[David A. Holtzman]

Oh, c'mon.  This is a politics question, not an election law question, 
unless you're questioning open primaries.  And the poll is pure 
politics.  - dah

On 11/2/2011 10:58 AM, Lowenstein, Daniel wrote:
>
>             I believe about half the states use one form or another of 
> open primaries.  After the states that use presidential nominating 
> caucuses instead of primaries are subtracted, I'm not sure of the 
> percentage of open-primary states remaining, but it is surely 
> significant.  One aspect of the Republican contest I have not heard 
> discussed is the possibility that black Democrats in open-primary 
> states might vote for Cain in the Republican primary.
>
>             I believe there is some research showing many 
> African-Americans dislike black Republicans more than they dislike 
> white Republicans.  I don't know how robust that research is, but 
> surely it is not the case for all or nearly all African-Americans.  
> For those who lack such antipathy, there is still the question whether 
> they would be motivated enough to vote and, if so, whether they'd 
> overcome a variety of possible reasons for reluctance to vote in a 
> Republican primary.  Still, whatever other effects Cain's scandal may 
> have, I can imagine it might heighten the motivation of black 
> Democrats who'd like to see the Republicans nominate a black candidate.
>
>             I'd appreciate the thoughts of others, especially any 
> thoughts supported by research.
>
>            By the way, Rasmussen finds Cain leading Romney by 33% - 
> 23% among likely Republican voters in South Carolina in a survey 
> conducted last night, after two days of the scandal and Cain's 
> somewhat inept responses rattling around.  I am by no means predicting 
> that Cain has sufficient legs to make a serious run at the nomination, 
> but I find the South Carolina result impressive.
>
>                                                     Best,
>
>                                                     Daniel Lowenstein
>
>                                                     Director
>
>                                                     UCLA Center for 
> the Liberal Arts and Free Institutions (CLAFI)
>
>                                                     310-825-5148
>
> lowenstein at law.ucla.edu <mailto:lowenstein at law.ucla.edu>
>
>
>
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> -- 
> David A. Holtzman, M.P.H., J.D.
> david at holtzmanlaw.com
>
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