[EL] (Not Really) ranked-choice voting in SF

Mon Nov 7 10:21:12 PST 2011

Doug, Mike Erin,

A few facts to be aware of in relation to ranked choice voting (instant
runoff_) in Oakland and San Francisco:

* Mike raises legal questions. The 9th circuit court definitively rejected
his concerns. See:
http://www.fairvote.org/major-legal-victory-for-ranked-choice-voting-and-reform

* In Oakland, Jean Quan more votes in her mayoral race than any mayoral
candidate in a generation -- more than Ron Dellums, more than Jerry Brown
and so on. That's because RCV allowed the race to take place in November
rather than have a first round in June elections, when most previous
Oakland elections has been decided with much lower turnout than November --
and with electorates that are far wealthier, whiter and older than November
electorates.

* A majority of voters who indicated a preference for Jean Quan or Don
Perata preferred Quan. She beat him citywide and in a majority of precincts
when compared one-on-one. While her last round total against Perata was
less that 50% of first choices, a majority of voters indicated her as a
first, second or third choice rankings. And, as is true of many runoffs,
some voters at the polls just didn't have a preference between the two of
them.

* In Oakland,a significantly lower share of voters at the polls for the
statewide races skipped the RCV race than they had in the 2006 mayoral race
in June, even with its smaller electorate. That's been a consistent finding
in RCV races in SF too -- a significantly lower "undervote" in RCV races
than comparable pre-RCV races, indicating a higher level of voter
engagement.

* In San Francisco, there were 14 runoff elections for city offices between
2000 and 2003. In ten of those runoffs, the turnout declined by more than a
third, and in eight of those runoffs, the December winner had __fewer__
votes than the November leader. in addition, independent expenditures
quadrupled in the final set of Board of Supervisors runoffs in 2002.

* Many RCV races have been won in the first count, as Mike mentions. But of
the 15 RCV races going to multiple rounds, three were won in the final
round with more than 50% of the first round total (including one race that
stopped before the field was reduced to two). Of the remaining 12 races, 11
were won with more than 40% of the first round total (counting one that
again was stopped with a candidate just shy of 40% and two opponents left)
- and generally these winners were ranked in the top three on a majority of
ballots. Only one race had a lower final round participation than 40%  -- a
2010 outlierwith a very fractured field, with five candidates receiving
between 10% and 12%, in which the RCV winner (and Condorcet candidate)
would have missed a traditional runoff by 0.03%.

This last point is a good one to keep in mind as California heads toward
Top Two races next year Those races can have a very arbitrary nature based
on who advances to the runoff. In two special elections this year in CA,
the race was effectively decided in the first round in odd ways. In
Assembly District 4, the first round leader, mroe than 9% ahead of the
field, was the only Democrat running in a Republican district. The
advancing Republican had 21%, just head of another Republican. She
effectively won the race by getting into the runoff. And in Congressional
District 36, Hahn effectively won her race when a Republican finished just
ahead of Debra Bowen in a fractured field -- Bowen would have been a
stronger final round challenger.

Look for a __lot__ of such quirky results next year in California based on
fractured votes in first round-- and yet look for much relatively little
attention to such problems because, well, we stop thinking about such
things once we get used to them. For example, this list didn't seem very
interested in the fact that in Louisiana's state senate Top Two-type
elections -- ones where you can win in the first round if over 50% --
Democrats fielded candidates in only 16 of 39 races, winning 15 of them.
Anyone ready to defend that kind of election as healthy? But imagine what
folks would be saying if Louisiana had been using RCV!

Also, check out my blog on Ireland's presidential race this fall using RCV.
It was a great example of a voting method working well.
http://www.fairvote.org/irish-presidential-election-with-instant-runoff-voting

And check out a complilation of news on this weeks' RCV elections here --
including a link to a very encouraging "snapshot" survey we did in Portland
(ME) as it uses RCV for the first time.
http://www.fairvote.org/ranked-choice-voting-in-major-elections

And finally, if there's a strong independent or American Elect candidate
for president next year, I'll be eager to see the vigorous defenses of
plurality voting and just how great it is when more than two strong
candidates run......or not so much!

Rob Richie

On Mon, Nov 7, 2011 at 1:03 PM, Mike Altschule <mikealtschule at yahoo.com>wrote:

> This is true.  Newsom won going away four years ago.  Also, there was at
> least one Supervisor running unopposed for reelection last cycle. SF's
> system is only triggered when someone fails to get a majority on the first
> ballot.  So, by definition, when the system is used, the winner could not
> have a majority of the first ballot votes.
>
> More interesting would be to know how many of the eventual winners had a
> plurality on the first ballot.  Even more interesting is whether anyone
> thinks the system raises Equal Protection concerns.  Some voters only have
> one vote counted, others have two, still others have three.  Some are in
> situations where their second and third choices are eliminated in the first
> two ballots and are left with no valid choices when their first-choice
> candidate is eliminated on the third ballot.
>
> Mike Altschule
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
> *To:* 'Rick Hasen' <rhasen at law.uci.edu>; law-election at uci.edu; Douglas
> Johnson <djohnson at ndcresearch.com>
> *Sent:* Monday, November 7, 2011 9:27 AM
>
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] (Not Really) ranked-choice voting in SF
>
> I'm really surprised to hear that anyone believes no one has ever won an
> IRV election in San Francisco with a majority of the first place votes.  It
> is very well known that in the last mayoralty election, Gavin Newsom easily
> won on first place votes alone, with, I believe, 72% of the voters giving
> him a first-place vote.  I am sure Rob Richie will be chiming in; he knows
> more details than I do.
>
> Richard Winger
> 415-922-9779
> PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
>
> --- On *Mon, 11/7/11, Douglas Johnson <djohnson at ndcresearch.com>* wrote:
>
>
> From: Douglas Johnson <djohnson at ndcresearch.com>
> Subject: Re: [EL] (Not Really) ranked-choice voting in SF
> To: "'Rick Hasen'" <rhasen at law.uci.edu>, law-election at uci.edu
> Date: Monday, November 7, 2011, 8:58 AM
>
> In San Francisco voters rank only their top three choices, not all of the
> candidates. As a result many voters do not participate in the final "run
> off," because all three of their choices have been eliminated in previous
> rounds.
>
> Unlike those voters who choose not to turn out in a traditional runoff
> election, these SF voters have no way to know that their choices will be
> eliminated, and they have no way to register their preference among the
> final runoff candidates.
>
> I have not personally confirmed this, but I saw one study that found none
> of the winners using SF's system have ever won with a majority of voters
> supporting them. In every case, drop-off from all three choices losing led
> to wins by plurality. I'd be interested to know if that study's been
> confirmed or disproven.
>
> - Doug
>
> Douglas Johnson
> Fellow
> Rose Institute of State and Local Government
> m 310-200-2058
> o 909-621-8159
> douglas.johnson at cmc.edu
>
>
>
> *From:* law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:
> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of *Rick Hasen
> *Sent:* Monday, November 07, 2011 7:46 AM
> *To:* law-election at UCI.EDU
> *Subject:* [EL] ELB News and Commentary 11/7/11
>
> *LA Times Previews Pearce Recall Election in Arizona<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25125>
> *
> Posted on November 7, 2011 8:38 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25125>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> One to watch<http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-arizona-recall-20111107,0,3155045.story>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25125&title=LA%20Times%20Previews%20Pearce%20Recall%20Election%20in%20Arizona&description=>
> Posted in recall elections <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=11> | Comments
> Off
> *“Obama’s strategic edge: cash to campaign everywhere”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25122>
> *
> Posted on November 7, 2011 8:35 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25122>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> The *LA Times* offers this front-page report<http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-states-strategy-20111107,0,6320233.story>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25122&title=%E2%80%9CObama%E2%80%99s%20strategic%20edge%3A%20cash%20to%20campaign%20everywhere%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
> | Comments Off
> *“Tell Americans to Vote, or Else” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25120> *
> Posted on November 7, 2011 8:34 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25120>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> William Galston has written *this NY Times* oped<http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/opinion/sunday/telling-americans-to-vote-or-else.html?scp=1&sq=galston&st=Search>.
> I wrote extensively on the topic of mandatory voting in the U.s. in this
> piece, *Voting without Law?, *an older Penn Law Review article that I’ve
> recently posted on SSRN<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1314963>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25120&title=%E2%80%9CTell%20Americans%20to%20Vote%2C%20or%20Else%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> | Comments
> Off
> *“States With Strict Voter Photo ID Laws More Than Tripled In 2011″<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25117>
> *
> Posted on November 7, 2011 8:30 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25117>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> ABC News reports<http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/11/states-with-strict-voter-photo-id-laws-more-than-trippled-in-2011/>.
> See also this *LA Times *editorial<http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/opinionla/la-ed-vote-20111107,0,6967596.story>,
> “Can’t We All Just Vote?”
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25117&title=%E2%80%9CStates%20With%20Strict%20Voter%20Photo%20ID%20Laws%20More%20Than%20Tripled%20In%202011%E2%80%B3&description=>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, voter
> id <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=9> | Comments Off
> *“County plans to prevent provisional ballot problems”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25114>
> *
> Posted on November 7, 2011 8:24 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25114>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> An important story<http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/201111060522/NEWS0108/111070301>in the
> *Cincinnati Enquirer*, which also discusses the *Hunter* litigation.
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25114&title=%E2%80%9CCounty%20plans%20to%20prevent%20provisional%20ballot%20problems%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> | Comments
> Off
> *“Ranked Choice Put To The Test In S.F. Mayor Race”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25111>
> *
> Posted on November 7, 2011 8:21 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25111>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> NPR reports<http://www.npr.org/2011/11/07/142080926/ranked-choice-put-to-the-test-in-s-f-mayor-race>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25111&title=%E2%80%9CRanked%20Choice%20Put%20To%20The%20Test%20In%20S.F.%20Mayor%20Race%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in alternative voting systems <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=63>
> | Comments Off
> *“Small Elections Drawing Big Money In Some States”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25108>
> *
> Posted on November 6, 2011 9:53 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25108>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> NPR reports<http://www.npr.org/2011/11/06/142079610/small-elections-drawing-big-money-in-some-states?ft=1&f=1014&sc=tw>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25108&title=%E2%80%9CSmall%20Elections%20Drawing%20Big%20Money%20In%20Some%20States%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
> | Comments Off
> *“Independent committees obscure campaign fund trail”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25105>
> *
> Posted on November 6, 2011 9:46 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25105>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> The *SF Chronicle* reports<http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/11/05/MNGM1LQAEL.DTL>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25105&title=%E2%80%9CIndependent%20committees%20obscure%20campaign%20fund%20trail%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> | Comments
> Off
> *“Democrats Target Restrictive Voter Laws”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25103>
> *
> Posted on November 6, 2011 9:45 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25103>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> NPR reports<http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hPimbbqK_AlIlR0ICNTQqNo4apOg?docId=CNG.ba960336eef0b6b64d443031b729e9c7.4d1>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25103&title=%E2%80%9CDemocrats%20Target%20Restrictive%20Voter%20Laws%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The
> Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
> *“Bring Same-Day Registration Back? Maine Votes”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25100>
> *
> Posted on November 6, 2011 9:43 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25100>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> NPR reports<http://www.npr.org/2011/11/06/142063994/bring-same-day-registration-back-maine-votes>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25100&title=%E2%80%9CBring%20Same-Day%20Registration%20Back%3F%20Maine%20Votes%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, voter
> registration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=37> | Comments Off
> *WaPo Profile of Justice O’Connor Discusses Her Role on Judicial
> Selection Changes <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25097> *
> Posted on November 6, 2011 9:41 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25097>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> Here<http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/oconnor-breaks-ground-again-this-time-as-a-former-supreme-court-justice/2011/10/24/gIQA3KRWtM_story.html>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25097&title=WaPo%20Profile%20of%20Justice%20O%E2%80%99Connor%20Discusses%20Her%20Role%20on%20Judicial%20Selection%20Changes&description=>
> Posted in judicial elections <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=19> | Comments
> Off
> *“Popular fallacy: a public choice analysis of Electoral College reform”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25093>
> *
> Posted on November 5, 2011 1:29 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25093>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> Brandon Draper has written this article<http://www.inderscience.com/storage/f428111210196573.pdf>for the
> *International Journal of Public Law and Policy*.  Here is the abstract:
>
> This article contends that the demand for Electoral College reform that
> occurs during every US presidential election season, most notably after the
> 2000 presidential election controversy, is largely misguided. Individuals
> demanding reform mainly seek to replace the Electoral College with an
> election system that, unlike the Electoral College, guarantees that the
> winner earns the most national popular votes. However, public choice
> provides a unique framework for assessing the inherent flaws of these
> reforms against the Electoral College. This article, under a public choice
> analysis, will seek to explain the deficiencies of the Electoral College,
> but more importantly, explain why reforms to or the abolishment of the
> Electoral College may either fail to solve US presidential election
> problems or even exacerbate them.
>
>
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25093&title=%E2%80%9CPopular%20fallacy%3A%20a%20public%20choice%20analysis%20of%20Electoral%20College%20reform%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in electoral college <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=44> | Comments
> Off
> *“Rules of the Game: Campaign Finance Rules Too Lax, Some Say”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25091>
> *
> Posted on November 5, 2011 1:24 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25091>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> Eliza’s latest<http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_54/Campaign-Finance-Rules-Too-Lax-Some-Say-210064-1.html?pos=hln>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25091&title=%E2%80%9CRules%20of%20the%20Game%3A%20Campaign%20Finance%20Rules%20Too%20Lax%2C%20Some%20Say%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> | Comments
> Off
> *“Ohio Redistricting Compromise Looks ‘Dead’”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25088>
> *
> Posted on November 5, 2011 11:21 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25088>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> *Roll Call* reports<http://www.rollcall.com/news/Ohio-Redistricting-Compromise-Looks-Dead-210063-1.html?pos=hftxt>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25088&title=%E2%80%9COhio%20Redistricting%20Compromise%20Looks%20%E2%80%98Dead%E2%80%99%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in redistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6> | Comments Off
> *“Cain’s Legal Team: The Bopp Connection”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25085>
> *
> Posted on November 5, 2011 11:19 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=25085>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> The *WSJ *Law Blog reports<http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2011/11/04/cains-legal-team-the-bopp-connection/>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D25085&title=%E2%80%9CCain%E2%80%99s%20Legal%20Team%3A%20The%20Bopp%20Connection%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, election
> law biz <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=51> | Comments Off
> --
> Rick Hasen
> Professor of Law and Political Science
> UC Irvine School of Law
> 401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
> Irvine, CA 92697-8000
> 949.824.3072 - office
> 949.824.0495 - fax
> rhasen at law.uci.edu
> http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
> http://electionlawblog.org
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