[EL] deaths after voting by mail

Fri Aug 3 09:59:25 PDT 2012

Short answer: not enough votes to worry about, there's nothing that could be
done if there were, and even if something could be done, it wouldn't be
right.  By any reasonable definition, a vote is a vote when it is cast, no
matter what happens to the voter subsequently.

In Oregon, according to the Public Health division, about 2,500-2,900 people
die in a typical month
<http://public.health.oregon.gov/BirthDeathCertificates/VitalStatistics/Fina
lData/Documents/10/deathmo.pdf> , with about 98% of those deaths occurring
in the voting age population
<http://public.health.oregon.gov/BirthDeathCertificates/VitalStatistics/Fina
lData/Documents/10/deathage.pdf> .   Turnout as a percentage of VAP in 2008
was 63% according to Michael McDonald
<http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html> 's United States Election
Project.  If we assume that deaths over a month are evenly distributed, and
that votes are cast roughly evenly over the month, that gives an estimated
approximate upper limit  (back of the envelope calculation; the actual
numbers will be slightly different, but not by enough to worry about) of the
number of votes potentially cast by people who died before election day as:

2,900*.98*.63*.5 = 895 votes

The key quantity here isn't this number, but the margin of victory for the
winning candidate among these voters.  An election would have to be pretty
close for this to make a difference, but let's say these voters went 60%-40%
for a candidate in a two candidate race.  That 20% margin reduces this 895
votes to 179 votes.  That could make a difference in a really tight race,
but there aren't many statewide races decided by this margin.

But it doesn't really make any difference, because for these votes to be
rejected, you'd have to hang on to every vote until  you got confirmation
that the voter had actually died, which is not workable.

This isn't different than a voter who casts a ballot on election day, but
who dies (or moves to another state)  before the results are certified.

Ken Mayer

Kenneth R. Mayer

Professor, Department of Political Science

Affiliate Faculty, La Follette School of Public Affairs

University of Wisconsin - Madison

110 North Hall/1050 Bascom Mall

Madison, WI  53706

(608) 263-2286 (voice)/ (608) 265-2663 (fax)

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Steve
Kolbert
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2012 11:09 AM
To: Doug Hess
Cc: Election Law
Subject: Re: [EL] deaths after voting by mail

You can find a discussion of the applicable Virginia law in Op. Va. Att'y
Gen. 10-104 (Oct. 26, 2010), available at
http://www.oag.state.va.us/Opinions%20and%20Legal%20Resources/OPINIONS/2010o
pns/10-104-Lind.pdf

SUMMARY:
When a general registrar knows an absentee voter has died prior to election
day, but after having voted by absentee ballot, the registrar must cancel
that voter's registration, and the absentee ballot should not be counted;
but that in those circumstances in which absentee ballots are cast prior to
election day in a manner by which the absentee ballot no longer can be set
aside, the general registrar who knows of the voter's death shall cancel
that voter's registration, but election officials are not otherwise required
to perform the impossible task of not counting the deceased voter's ballot.

Steve Kolbert
(202) 422-2588
steve.kolbert at gmail.com
@Pronounce_the_T

On Aug 3, 2012 11:54 AM, "Doug Hess" <douglasrhess at gmail.com> wrote:

Let's say you vote by mail and then kick the bucket before ballots are
counted or before election day. Assuming election officials notice this
about you and spot your ballot, do laws or regulations address counting that
ballot? I assume that if you were eligible to vote when you did, that dieing
before ballots are counted doesn't matter.  

If an election is entirely by mail and you can get ballots 30 days in
advance (is that standard?), just how many adults go six feet under in that
period. I'm wondering--for Friday amusement partially--if the number or
percentage is enough that the dead can determine an outcome? 

Doug

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