I am reminded of G.K. Chesterton, who observed that some so-called democrats (small "d," of course) took pride in believing that participation in government should not be determined by the accident of birth, but went further by insisting that participation should not be determined by the accident of death.
Best,
Daniel H. Lowenstein
Director, Center for the Liberal Arts and Free Institutions (CLAFI)
UCLA Law School
405 Hilgard
Los Angeles, California 90095-1476
310-825-5148
________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Ken Mayer [kmayer at polisci.wisc.edu]
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2012 9:59 AM
To: 'Steve Kolbert'; 'Doug Hess'
Cc: 'Election Law'
Subject: Re: [EL] deaths after voting by mail
Short answer: not enough votes to worry about, there’s nothing that could be done if there were, and even if something could be done, it wouldn’t be right. By any reasonable definition, a vote is a vote when it is cast, no matter what happens to the voter subsequently.
In Oregon, according to the Public Health division, about 2,500-2,900 people die in a typical month<http://public.health.oregon.gov/BirthDeathCertificates/VitalStatistics/FinalData/Documents/10/deathmo.pdf>, with about 98% of those deaths occurring in the voting age population<http://public.health.oregon.gov/BirthDeathCertificates/VitalStatistics/FinalData/Documents/10/deathage.pdf>. Turnout as a percentage of VAP in 2008 was 63% according to Michael McDonald’s United States Election Project<http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html>. If we assume that deaths over a month are evenly distributed, and that votes are cast roughly evenly over the month, that gives an estimated approximate upper limit (back of the envelope calculation; the actual numbers will be slightly different, but not by enough to worry about) of the number of votes potentially cast by people who died before election day as:
2,900*.98*.63*.5 = 895 votes
The key quantity here isn’t this number, but the margin of victory for the winning candidate among these voters. An election would have to be pretty close for this to make a difference, but let’s say these voters went 60%-40% for a candidate in a two candidate race. That 20% margin reduces this 895 votes to 179 votes. That could make a difference in a really tight race, but there aren’t many statewide races decided by this margin.
But it doesn’t really make any difference, because for these votes to be rejected, you’d have to hang on to every vote until you got confirmation that the voter had actually died, which is not workable.
This isn’t different than a voter who casts a ballot on election day, but who dies (or moves to another state) before the results are certified.
Ken Mayer
Kenneth R. Mayer
Professor, Department of Political Science
Affiliate Faculty, La Follette School of Public Affairs
University of Wisconsin - Madison
110 North Hall/1050 Bascom Mall
Madison, WI 53706
(608) 263-2286 (voice)/ (608) 265-2663 (fax)
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Steve Kolbert
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2012 11:09 AM
To: Doug Hess
Cc: Election Law
Subject: Re: [EL] deaths after voting by mail
You can find a discussion of the applicable Virginia law in Op. Va. Att'y Gen. 10-104 (Oct. 26, 2010), available at http://www.oag.state.va.us/Opinions%20and%20Legal%20Resources/OPINIONS/2010opns/10-104-Lind.pdf
SUMMARY:
When a general registrar knows an absentee voter has died prior to election day, but after having voted by absentee ballot, the registrar must cancel that voter's registration, and the absentee ballot should not be counted; but that in those circumstances in which absentee ballots are cast prior to election day in a manner by which the absentee ballot no longer can be set aside, the general registrar who knows of the voter's death shall cancel that voter's registration, but election officials are not otherwise required to perform the impossible task of not counting the deceased voter's ballot.
Steve Kolbert
(202) 422-2588
steve.kolbert at gmail.com<mailto:steve.kolbert at gmail.com>
@Pronounce_the_T
On Aug 3, 2012 11:54 AM, "Doug Hess" <douglasrhess at gmail.com<mailto:douglasrhess at gmail.com>> wrote:
Let's say you vote by mail and then kick the bucket before ballots are counted or before election day. Assuming election officials notice this about you and spot your ballot, do laws or regulations address counting that ballot? I assume that if you were eligible to vote when you did, that dieing before ballots are counted doesn't matter.
If an election is entirely by mail and you can get ballots 30 days in advance (is that standard?), just how many adults go six feet under in that period. I'm wondering--for Friday amusement partially--if the number or percentage is enough that the dead can determine an outcome?
Doug
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