[EL] States in Play
Jboppjr
jboppjr at aol.com
Wed Aug 29 07:30:57 PDT 2012
I hope the Des believe this and spend a ton of money in Indiana. Jim Bopp
Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note™, an AT&T LTE smartphone
-------- Original message --------
Subject: Re: [EL] States in Play
From: William Groth <wgroth at fdgtlaborlaw.com>
To: mmcdon at gmu.edu,'Election Law' <Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>
CC: Re: [EL] States in Play
Last week I heard from a very reliable source that a recent poll showed Obama down by only 5 to Romney in Indiana. Obama could be very competitive in this state, as our Republican governor has alienated nearly every traditional Democratic constituency, including labor (by the passage of RTW), teachers, women (by the attempted defunding of Planned Parenthood) and the GLBT community, and those constituencies are mad and motivated. But Obama's resources compared to 2008 are limited relative to those of his opponent and, unfortunately for Hoosier Democrats, we're not getting near the attention from the campaign we did in 2008. The First Lady was in town last week, so maybe things are starting to change.
William R. Groth
Fillenwarth Dennerline Groth & Towe, LLP
429 E. Vermont Street, Ste. 200
Indianapolis, IN 46202
Telephone: (317) 353-9363
Fax: (317) 351-7232
E-mail: wgroth at fdgtlaborlaw.com
-----Original Message-----
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Michael McDonald
Sent: Tuesday, August 28, 2012 7:41 PM
To: 'Election Law'
Subject: Re: [EL] States in Play
If you like to fool around with the parameterization of the polling forecast models, I recommend Huffington Post’s Pollster section:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
It's where I blog, but I like these features: all the polling data is listed with links to the canonical reports where they are available, you can filter out polling organizations and recalculate the trend line, and you can change the sensitivity of the trend line analysis.
Both Pollster and Silver rate Missouri closer than Indiana based on polling. The problem with Indiana’s forecast is that there appear to be few state polls, so the forecasters are simply relying on their judgment of past elections. I imagine that the campaigns have done poll testing, but that information is not publicly available.
============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Mailing address:
(o) 703-993-4191 George Mason University
(f) 703-993-1399 Dept. of Public and International Affairs
mmcdon at gmu.edu 4400 University Drive - 3F4
http://elections.gmu.edu Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rob Richie
Sent: Tuesday, August 28, 2012 6:38 PM
To: Marty Lederman
Cc: Doug Hess; Election Law
Subject: Re: [EL] States in Play
It's incredible how little they are doing outside of those states. As one example, here was a Washington Post story on ad spending form last month http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/ohio-at-the-epicenter-of-2012-ad-battle/2012/07/06/gJQAwbNSSW_blog.html
Below is a key excerpt from that story-- note the heavy concentration on a few states, then basically nothing elsewhere We've been pretty regularly posting new pieces on candidate travel patterns and highlighted stories -- see http://www.fairvote.org/blog and look for tacker blogs that we do every week or two. (Those candidate travel patterns are compelling too -- such as President Obama not visiting South Carolina as president, but going to North Carolina 18 times. As soon as he effectively secured the pattern, Mitt Romney shifted into that mode too.)
This has election law consequences, of course, has the fight over every vote intensifies in those handful of states deemed to be in play.
- Rob
######
WASHINGTON POST STORY EXCERPT
Given that, here’s a look at the five states where Obama and Romney have spent the most on ads as of July 3.
Obama: 1. Ohio ($22 million) 2. Florida ($17 million) 3. Virginia ($11.4 million) 4. North Carolina ($10.9 million) 5. Iowa ($8.5 million)
Romney: 1. Ohio ($6.4 million) 2. North Carolina ($4.7 million) 3. Virginia ($2.8 million) 4. Colorado ($2.7 million) 5. Iowa ($2.7 million) Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa make both lists. Colorado, which ranks fourth in spending for Romney, is sixth ($7.9 million) for Obama. Romney has spent just over $2 million in Florida but Crossroads GPS has dropped over $5 million on ads in the Sunshine State while Restore Our Future has spent $2.4 million there.
Among the “swing” states where relatively little is being spent on ads includes Michigan (NO spending by either campaign), Wisconsin (NO spending by either campaign) and Pennsylvania ($5 million by Obama, zero by Romney).
On Tue, Aug 28, 2012 at 6:27 PM, Marty Lederman <lederman.marty at gmail.com> wrote:
Does anyone know if the campaigns are making significant investments in any states other than Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Iowa -- and, I suppose, possibly Michigan, North Carolina and/or Pennsylvania?
Or are those 8-11 states where all the action (that is, uncertainty) is?
On Tue, Aug 28, 2012 at 6:17 PM, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org> wrote:
Doug,
This provides a chance for FairVote to do some mild chestbumping.
In December 2008, we released a report on what we called the shrinking battleground that we saw as having been demonstrated in the 2008 election. Dan Tokaji was filling in for Rick that day in blogging, and below is how he linked to it on the election law blog -- introducing our report by saying "countering the conventional wisdom..."
What we saw in 2008 was what this election cycle has confirmed: that in a really close year, the number of states with a chance of tipping the election had in fact decreased in 2008 rather than increased. The fact that Barack Obama won by more than 7% gave an misleading impression of some states being in play that in fact wouldn't have been in play if the national margin had been more like it had been in 2000 or 2004.
Missouri and Indiana are states that COULD have been competitive this year, with relatively small shifts toward Democrats, but instead they seem to have shifted slightly the other way. Indeed, that seems to be the pattern. Most states that show a partisan shift are shifting farther away from the 50-50 competitive line rather than toward it.
As it is, most analysts see fewer than 10 real swing states right now - perhaps as few as 7. None are surprises, based on the 2008 data. And none of the non-swing states are surprises either -- if I were to pick on state that I would have thought would be seen as more competitive in 2012 than most people say it is, I would say Minnesota.
See more in the report linked below.
Rob
http://electionlawblog.org/?m=200812&paged=3
“2008′s Shrinking Battleground”
Posted on December 5, 2008 5:37 am by Dan Tokaji Countering the conventional wisdom, FairVote argues in this press release that “2008 marked a record low in the number of competitive states since 1960 and a record high in the number of completely non-competitive states.”
On Tue, Aug 28, 2012 at 5:37 PM, Doug Hess <douglasrhess at gmail.com> wrote:
I know this is not a psephology list, but I wonder why MO and IN are viewed by many to be strongly Romney states. Granted, IN going for Obama in 2008 was surprising (at least to me, and I suspect others).
And MO in 2008 was won by McCain by the skin of his teeth. But why are both states considered out of Obama's reach now (see Nate Silver's summaries of polls and some predictions in the link)?
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/aug-25-an-above-average-likely-voter-gap-for-romney/#more-33647
Doug
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"Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"
Rob Richie
Executive Director
FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
www.fairvote.org rr at fairvote.org
(301) 270-4616
Please support FairVote through action and tax-deductible donations -- see http://fairvote.org/donate. For federal employees, please consider a gift to us through the Combined Federal Campaign (FairVote's CFC number is 10132.) Thank you!
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