[EL] two interesting, recent articles on demographic changes

[Doug Hess]

Two interesting, recent pieces on demographics relevant to race and,
maybe, turnout in elections.

1) The first is “Is the U.S. Getting Older and Whiter, or Younger and
More Diverse? Yes” by Derek Thompson of The Atlantic.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/is-the-us-getting-older-and-whiter-or-younger-and-more-diverse-yes/250653/

Three snippets:

  a) “For the first time ever, half the children under the age of one
are not white. Minorities accounted for 92 percent of population
growth in the 2000s. ... [B]ut remember that the country grew more
than 30 percent faster in the 1990s than in the 2000s. ... [Thus,]
minorities are taking a larger slice of a shrinking pie.”

  b)  “`From one direction, racial diversity in the United States is
growing, particularly among the young,’” Ron Brownstein wrote in "The
Gray and the Brown," a National Journal cover story. “`At the same
time, the country is also aging, as the massive Baby Boom Generation
moves into retirement [and] fully four-fifths of this rapidly
expanding senior population is white.’”

  c) “If you live somewhere like Arizona, where fewer than 40 percent
of the children -- yet more than 80 percent of the seniors -- are
white, the gray-brown thesis will resonate.”

2) The second is “Americans Still Stuck at Home” by William Frey. The
Atlantic story above includes links to this article by the demographer
William Frey, but it is worth looking at on its own. Link:
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1117_migration_census_frey.aspx

The “Big Three” factors for turnout are age, education, and
residential mobility (of course, all three of these, plus income, are
correlated to some degree). Residential mobility matters because
Americans move...alot. And because of the registration requirements
(along with interest in elecions and knowing where to vote in your
know home, although most residential moves are not far).

However, Frey observes that residential mobility has been declining
for some time:  “The new statistics indicate that just 11.6 percent of
U.S. residents moved between 2010 and 2011, down from 12.5 percent the
previous year, and the lowest rate since 1948. To put this in proper
perspective: the 35.1 million people who changed residence last year
is the lowest number since 1960, when the nation’s population was
about 40 percent smaller.”

Three thoughts of my own on this interesting article by Frey: First,
we are still a VERY mobile nation. That millions of voters will have
to change their voter registration record each election cycle to
continue voting is a significant issue, even if markedly fewer people
will experience it.

Second, several factors explain this change, but once (if?) the
economy recovers mobility will likely rise again, particularly across
county or state borders (i.e., people moving for jobs) which are the
distances that most likely require the updating of registrations.
Still, it looks like mobility will stay down (or drop even more?) for
some time.

Final thought: Could the decline in residential mobility explain some
of the increase in turnout since the 1990s or affect turnout in 2012?
Frey notes that movement between counties has decline particularly for
people 20-24 years of age. Perhaps some residential stability among
these citizens will partially counteract factors that would reduce
their 2012 turnout rates compared to 2008?

-Doug