[EL] Re; Comments on Doug Chapin's post

[Curtis Gans]

   - I did not write my answer to Chapin here and in his blog to get into a
   pissing ,match with Michael McDonald. I did it to point out that the
   choices are not between VAP (which no one no longer uses and, in part
   thanks to McDonald and Popkin's piece), but a choice between Michael's VEP
   and my (and Burnham's) citizen-eligible. I gave my reasons for why mine is
   better, including history, but also things that Michael has left out of his
   VAP, including under and over counts and movers and naturalizations in the
   year of the election. (I also don't think you can get an accurate number on
   Americans abroad other than affiliated with government and allocate the
   others. I tried at one time.)

I did not finish my APSR piece, though it was accepted for publication
because I thought the better part of valor was to create an historical
database that ended up in my book which I think will stand the test of time
as the seminal reference book on this arcane issue.

That piece however showed that if you either included all the factors or
just did Citizen age-eligible, there was a noticeable decline in turnout
between 1974-1996 in presidential years and a very modest decline in
mid-terms between 1974 and1998 (contrary to McDonald and Popkin's
assertions.) But what that answer also  showed was that there was a
substantial decline in turnout (according to Census figures) in every age
cohort below age 65 and, based on aggregate data, a substantial decline in
every region but the south. Which means that static factors cannot explain
turnout decline as McDonald and Popkin then asserted. I still have all the
figures, charts and text should anyone be interested.

I think my way of doing things is better, but there are arguments in the
other direction which Michael has made. The consumer -- you and others --
are free to choose what they want to use.
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