[EL] Fwd: Is an Early Vote a Wasted Vote in Primary Elections?

Thu Jan 19 14:30:57 PST 2012

I'm not as worried about this issue since the early, early voters tend to be
hard core supporters and are less likely to change their preferences. Plus,
if there is an effect, it has been minimized since a smaller number of
people will make a choice based on it.

============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

                             Mailing address:
(o) 703-993-4191             George Mason University
(f) 703-993-1399             Dept. of Public and International Affairs
mmcdon at gmu.edu               4400 University Drive - 3F4
http://elections.gmu.edu     Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

-----Original Message-----
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of
Scarberry, Mark
Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2012 5:18 PM
To: 'law-election at uci.edu'
Subject: Re: [EL] Fwd: Is an Early Vote a Wasted Vote in Primary Elections?

A somewhat countervailing point is that, to the extent voting is early, even
an early "stink bomb" will affect some voters' votes fairly immediately,
before the target has a chance to respond. 

Mark S. Scarberry
Pepperdine Univ. School of Law
Malibu, CA 90263
(310)506-4667

-----Original Message-----
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Michael
McDonald
Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2012 2:03 PM
To: 'law-election at uci.edu'
Subject: Re: [EL] Fwd: Is an Early Vote a Wasted Vote in Primary Elections?

It is worth mentioning there is a positive way by which early voting has
changed campaign dynamics, which is not discussed in this article or
acknowledged by Paul Gronke in the ELJ press release. Early voting has
effectively neutered the proverbial "October Surprise." A campaign that
waits too long to attack an opponent will miss their window of opportunity.
As a consequence, a candidate who is a target of a stink bomb has an
opportunity to respond and the media and the voters have an opportunity to
critically evaluate the claims and counter claims rather than allowing last
minute hysterics dominate vote choices. Information about Bush's DUI in the
late stages of the 2000 campaign -- one example provided in the article at a
time ironically when early voting was at lower levels -- would likely have
been released much earlier and Bush would have been given a fair chance to
respond to the allegations. For this reason, the promise by the Marc
Meredith and Neil Malhotra to study campaign effects will be challenging
since the campaign dynamics themselves have changed to the reality of early
voting. If one is truly concerned about withdrawn primary candidates, Rob
Richie does indeed have the most practical solution -- used rank choice
voting and remove votes for withdrawn candidates. 

============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

                             Mailing address:
(o) 703-993-4191             George Mason University
(f) 703-993-1399             Dept. of Public and International Affairs
mmcdon at gmu.edu               4400 University Drive - 3F4
http://elections.gmu.edu     Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick
Hasen
Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2012 3:54 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] Fwd: Is an Early Vote a Wasted Vote in Primary Elections?

fyi

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Subject: 
Is an Early Vote a Wasted Vote in Primary Elections?
Date: 
Thu, 19 Jan 2012 11:18:53 -0800
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Is an Early Vote a Wasted Vote in Primary Elections? 

New Rochelle, NY, January 19, 2012-Many Americans are now able to cast their
votes before the actual Election Day in their state, opting to submit an
early "absentee" ballot or to cast an early vote in person. But in a
presidential primary, early "convenience" voting may have unexpected
consequences on the outcome of the election, and may also result in wasted
votes as the list of candidates keeps changing, a fascinating phenomenon
explored in an article in Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy,
a peer-reviewed publication from Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.  The article is
available free online. 
Convenience voting offers Americans "the opportunity to cast ballots without
being exposed to the information revealed in the final weeks leading up to
Election Day," explain Marc Meredith, Assistant Professor, University of
Pennsylvania, and Neil Malhotra, Associate Professor, Stanford University.
They studied the effects of voting-by-mail, for example, during the 2008
California presidential primary and showed that early voting "affects the
relative performance of candidates remaining in the race and increases the
probability of selecting withdrawn candidates," describing their findings in
the article " Convenience Voting Can Affect Election Outcomes."
Paul Gronke, Co-Editor of Election Law Journal, says that "In the past 20
years, early voting has revolutionized American elections, as voters opted
for convenience over the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
But early voting in presidential primaries is a much different animal,
because the candidates still standing on Election Day may not be the same
ones on ballots cast weeks before." Gronke warns that "Meredith and
Malhotra's paper raises serious concerns about the use of early voting in
primaries. In close contests with changing lists of candidates-as in the
2012 GOP contest-it may call into question the legitimacy of the outcome."
Election Law Journal is an authoritative peer-reviewed journal published
quarterly in print and online by Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. Led by Co-Editors
Paul Gronke, Associate Professor of Political Science at Reed College
(Portland, OR) and, Daniel P. Tokaji, JD, The Ohio State University, Moritz
College of Law, the Journal covers the emerging specialty of election law
for practicing attorneys, election administrators, political professionals,
legal scholars, and social scientists, and covers election design and reform
on the federal, state, and local levels in the U.S. and in 75 countries
around the world. Complete tables of content and a sample issue may be
viewed online.
Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. is a privately held, fully integrated media company
known for establishing authoritative peer-reviewed journals in many
promising areas of science, biomedical research, and law, including
Biotechnology Law Report, Gaming Law Review and Economics, and Environmental
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Biotechnology News (GEN), was the first in its field and is today the
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firm's 70 journals, books, and newsmagazines is available at our website. 

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