[EL] Fwd: Is an Early Vote a Wasted Vote in Primary Elections?

Thu Jan 19 16:55:33 PST 2012

Michael

I don't think we know yet whether the October surprise has been "effectively neutered."  It depends on a number of variables, including how many early ballots have been cast by a particular point (for example, my estimate posted today is that somewhere between 8-17% of the GOP ballots have been cast); WHO has cast the early ballots (not everyone will be equally susceptible to the "surprise"). No one has any systematic evidence on this point, although I can point to my own work as first suggesting this possibility (MPSA 2004 paper).  

I agree with you about Rob's suggestion, and we just might be working on a joint statement about that ...

---
Paul Gronke                Ph:  503-517-7393
			               Fax: 734-661-0801

Professor, Reed College
Director, Early Voting Information Center 3203 SE Woodstock Blvd.
Portland OR 97202

EVIC: http://earlyvoting.net

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On Jan 19, 2012, at 2:02 PM, Michael McDonald wrote:

> It is worth mentioning there is a positive way by which early voting has
> changed campaign dynamics, which is not discussed in this article or
> acknowledged by Paul Gronke in the ELJ press release. Early voting has
> effectively neutered the proverbial ?October Surprise.? A campaign that
> waits too long to attack an opponent will miss their window of opportunity.
> As a consequence, a candidate who is a target of a stink bomb has an
> opportunity to respond and the media and the voters have an opportunity to
> critically evaluate the claims and counter claims rather than allowing last
> minute hysterics dominate vote choices. Information about Bush?s DUI in the
> late stages of the 2000 campaign -- one example provided in the article at a
> time ironically when early voting was at lower levels -- would likely have
> been released much earlier and Bush would have been given a fair chance to
> respond to the allegations. For this reason, the promise by the Marc
> Meredith and Neil Malhotra to study campaign effects will be challenging
> since the campaign dynamics themselves have changed to the reality of early
> voting. If one is truly concerned about withdrawn primary candidates, Rob
> Richie does indeed have the most practical solution -- used rank choice
> voting and remove votes for withdrawn candidates. 
> 
> ============
> Dr. Michael P. McDonald
> Associate Professor, George Mason University
> Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
> 
>                             Mailing address:
> (o) 703-993-4191             George Mason University
> (f) 703-993-1399             Dept. of Public and International Affairs
> mmcdon at gmu.edu               4400 University Drive - 3F4
> http://elections.gmu.edu     Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
> 
> From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick
> Hasen
> Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2012 3:54 PM
> To: law-election at uci.edu
> Subject: [EL] Fwd: Is an Early Vote a Wasted Vote in Primary Elections?
> 
> fyi
> 
> -------- Original Message -------- 
> Subject: 
> Is an Early Vote a Wasted Vote in Primary Elections?
> Date: 
> Thu, 19 Jan 2012 11:18:53 -0800
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> 
> Is an Early Vote a Wasted Vote in Primary Elections? 
> 
> 
> 
>  
> New Rochelle, NY, January 19, 2012?Many Americans are now able to cast their
> votes before the actual Election Day in their state, opting to submit an
> early ?absentee? ballot or to cast an early vote in person. But in a
> presidential primary, early ?convenience? voting may have unexpected
> consequences on the outcome of the election, and may also result in wasted
> votes as the list of candidates keeps changing, a fascinating phenomenon
> explored in an article in Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy,
> a peer-reviewed publication from Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.  The article is
> available free online. 
> Convenience voting offers Americans ?the opportunity to cast ballots without
> being exposed to the information revealed in the final weeks leading up to
> Election Day,? explain Marc Meredith, Assistant Professor, University of
> Pennsylvania, and Neil Malhotra, Associate Professor, Stanford University.
> They studied the effects of voting-by-mail, for example, during the 2008
> California presidential primary and showed that early voting ?affects the
> relative performance of candidates remaining in the race and increases the
> probability of selecting withdrawn candidates,? describing their findings in
> the article ? Convenience Voting Can Affect Election Outcomes.?
> Paul Gronke, Co-Editor of Election Law Journal, says that ?In the past 20
> years, early voting has revolutionized American elections, as voters opted
> for convenience over the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
> But early voting in presidential primaries is a much different animal,
> because the candidates still standing on Election Day may not be the same
> ones on ballots cast weeks before.? Gronke warns that ?Meredith and
> Malhotra?s paper raises serious concerns about the use of early voting in
> primaries. In close contests with changing lists of candidates?as in the
> 2012 GOP contest?it may call into question the legitimacy of the outcome.?
> Election Law Journal is an authoritative peer-reviewed journal published
> quarterly in print and online by Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. Led by Co-Editors
> Paul Gronke, Associate Professor of Political Science at Reed College
> (Portland, OR) and, Daniel P. Tokaji, JD, The Ohio State University, Moritz
> College of Law, the Journal covers the emerging specialty of election law
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