[EL] RE: "US Senate Testimony on 'Protecting the Right to Vote in the Sunshine State'"

[Michael McDonald]

As those on the list should know, I am no fan of restrictive voting laws in
any form, if they affect Democrats or Republicans. However, I need to place
into context Rick’s “key plot showing by day the racial/ethnic early
in-person voting in Florida in the 2008 General Election" (created by
Michael Herron and Dan Smith for their Senate testimony).

Below are the number of persons voting in-person early by day during
Florida’s early voting period in 2008. The two important dates are Sunday
October 26, 2008 and Sunday November 2, 2008. In Herron and Smith's key
plot, the percentage of minorities voting on these Sunday's jumps up
considerably. What is also important to note is that the number of persons
voting early drops considerably on these days. It is not too hard to figure
out what is going on here. Only twelve counties report early voting numbers
on 10/26 and eleven counties report early voting numbers on 11/2. There are
some heavy density minority communities like Broward and Dade among those
reporting on Sundays. In other words, early polling places were closed on
Sundays in the predominantly white areas.

I've heard pundits claiming that the significant increases in early voting
are a results of a "Pew to the Polls" church-led GOVT effort on Sundays.
That does not square with my recollection of Florida's early voting in 2008.
The Obama campaign begged local leaders to stop saying that an early vote
would not be counted since early voting was a part of their voter
mobilization strategy. I am willing to believe that some churches did indeed
engage in GOTV efforts, but I do not believe that the key plot is indicative
of efficacy of such efforts. We have case selection bias to contend with
first.

Now, given these numbers there is a *stronger* argument that the new Florida
law restricting in-person early voting on the Sunday before the election to
be in discriminatory since Sunday early voting is being implemented in
primarily urban counties. Some may argue there is a Bush v Gore violation,
but all Florida counties may implement in-person early voting as it is now.
They may choose not to do so for cost reasons, or perhaps a more
discriminatory purpose to prevent Democrats or minorities from voting (it is
clear in Florida's statistics that Democrats favor in-person early voting
over the Republican preferred absentee mail balloting). Understanding why
some counties choose not to have Sunday early voting is a first step to
addressing the real issue here.

I think we need to understand why some Supervisors of Elections are not
opening Sunday polling locations to better understand why this dynamic
exists. And, to fully understand the effect of restricting Sunday early
voting, we need to know if these Sunday early voters will vote on another
day. Take Broward County for example...the early voting was at 14,922 on
Friday October 24; 11,616 on Saturday, October 25; 11,198 on Sunday, October
26; and 18,586 on Monday, October 27. There were fewer in-person early
voters during this weekend in Broward. If there was a "Pew to the Polls"
GOTV effort, it does not appear to be particularly effective in Broward. I'd
like to know more about the number of open polling places and their hours to
understand this dynamic -- it could be that the decline is primarily driven
by limited access to early polling locations on the weekend. Still, these
numbers suggest to me that the effects of limiting Sunday early voting would
not be as dramatic on minorities -- but would still discriminatory -- as
they may appear in Herron and Smith's key plot. Again, let me be clear in
case anyone tries to misquote me out of context: there is a strong case that
limiting Sunday early voting is discriminatory.

Early Voting by Day
Date of EarlyVote
Count
10/20/2008
157,912
10/21/2008
161,083
10/22/2008
167,922
10/23/2008
166,236
10/24/2008
183,179
10/25/2008
133,534
10/26/2008 (Sunday)
53,094
10/27/2008
201,479
10/28/2008
215,911
10/29/2008
272,507
10/30/2008
281,838
10/31/2008
298,692
11/1/2008
268,926
11/2/2008
76,013 (Sunday)



============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

                             Mailing address:
(o) 703-993-4191             George Mason University
(f) 703-993-1399             Dept. of Public and International Affairs
mmcdon at gmu.edu               4400 University Drive - 3F4
http://elections.gmu.edu     Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick
Hasen
Sent: Sunday, January 29, 2012 6:56 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 1/29/12

An Incomplete NPR Report on Voter ID 
Posted on January 29, 2012 3:52 pm by Rick Hasen 
NPR reports “Why New Photo ID Laws Mean Some Won’t Vote.”  While this is an
interesting report on who doesn’t have voter id and on how the data skew, it
is really incomplete.  This is what we need to know to understand how new
i.d. requirements may affect upcoming elections:
1. how many people don’t have i.d. now and how do those data skew?
2. of those people who don’t have i.d.
a. how many want but cannot get the i.d. needed to vote (either because the
documents needed for the i.d. are not (easily) available or affordable, for
religious reasons, or some other reason)?; and
b. of those people, how many would vote, but for the lack of a voter i.d.?
and
c. of those people lacking i.d. who want to vote, how many may vote without
i.d., either through an absentee ballot, with an affidavit or witness
statement, or through some other means?
In short, knowing how many people don’t have i.d. now is the beginning, not
the end, of the inquiry about how voter i.d. laws will affect the outcome of
elections.  I have yet to see good data on these final questions.  The best
analyses I have seen so far on this question are Pitts and Neumann and
Erikson and Minnite. Both show we are a long way from being able to answer
these questions, though there is reason to believe the numbers of people
actually deterred by voter i.d. requirements likely are not enormous.
Much more on this in The Voting Wars.

Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars, voter id | Comments Off 
More from Texas Redistricting Blog 
Posted on January 29, 2012 3:37 pm by Rick Hasen 
See DOJ on the Meaning of the SCOTUS Opinion and a Press Roundup.

Posted in Department of Justice, redistricting, Voting Rights Act | Comments
Off 
“In Nonstop Whirlwind of Campaigns, Twitter Is a Critical Tool” 
Posted on January 29, 2012 11:30 am by Rick Hasen 
NYT reports.

Posted in social media and social protests | Comments Off 
“Virgin Islands Lawyer Sues U.S. Government Over Right to Vote” 
Posted on January 29, 2012 11:26 am by Rick Hasen 
Links to complaint, etc. here.  More from the Virgin Islands Daily News.

Posted in voting | Comments Off 
“US Senate Testimony on ‘Protecting the Right to Vote in the Sunshine
State’” 
Posted on January 29, 2012 11:23 am by Rick Hasen 
Dan Smith:
Here’s a copy of my written testimony with Prof. Michael Herron, which I
presented on January 27, 2012 in Tampa, Florida, before the United States
Senate Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil
Rights and Human Rights, “New State Voting Laws II: Protecting the Right to
Vote in the Sunshine State.”
Here are the slides I projected during my 7 minute oral testimony.
And here’s the link to the key plot showing by day the racial/ethnic early
in-person voting in Florida in the 2008 General Election.

Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars | Comments Off 
“Super PACs are overwhelming the political process” 
Posted on January 29, 2012 11:22 am by Rick Hasen 
This editorial appears in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

Posted in campaign finance | Comments Off 
“Charlie White’s freedom, political future on the line” 
Posted on January 29, 2012 11:20 am by Rick Hasen 
Indiana Secretary of State goes on trial on voter fraud charges Monday.

Posted in SOS White | Comments Off 
Roundup of CA Supreme Court Redistricting Decision Stories 
Posted on January 28, 2012 3:36 pm by Rick Hasen 
Here.  My earlier coverage is here.

Posted in citizen commissions, redistricting | Comments Off 
“Texas voter ID case: Meet the three-judge panel” 
Posted on January 28, 2012 3:34 pm by Rick Hasen 
Not a great draw for the Lone Star State.

Posted in voter id, Voting Rights Act | Comments Off 
“Florida’s election law draws scrutiny; A U.S. Senate committee raised
questions over Florida’s new election law at a field hearing in Tampa” 
Posted on January 27, 2012 9:08 pm by Rick Hasen 
Miami Herald: “Testimony centered on the most controversial changes:
reducing early voting from 14 days to eight, from 96 hours to a minimum of
48, and ending it on the Saturday before the election; requiring third-party
groups to register and face fines if they turn in voter registration forms
after 48 hours; and requiring voters to cast provisional ballots if they
moved from another county since they last voted if they did not update their
addresses.”

Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars | Comments Off 
“Censoring of Tweets Sets Off #Outrage” 
Posted on January 27, 2012 9:04 pm by Rick Hasen 
NYT: “But this week, in a sort of coming-of-age moment, Twitter announced
that upon request, it would block certain messages in countries where they
were deemed illegal. The move immediately prompted outcry, argument and even
calls for a boycott from some users. “

Posted in social media and social protests | Comments Off 
-- 
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
http://electionlawblog.org