[EL] "US Senate Testimony on 'Protecting the Right to Vote in the Sunshine State'"

Mon Jan 30 11:02:20 PST 2012

The time needed to wait in line for early voting in FL and elsewhere was
pretty horrible in 2008.  Restricting the days/hours can only exacerbate
that problem, and a drop in turnout is predictable.

On Mon, Jan 30, 2012 at 1:38 PM, Michael McDonald <mmcdon at gmu.edu> wrote:

> As those on the list should know, I am no fan of restrictive voting laws in
> any form, if they affect Democrats or Republicans. However, I need to place
> into context Rick’s “key plot showing by day the racial/ethnic early
> in-person voting in Florida in the 2008 General Election" (created by
> Michael Herron and Dan Smith for their Senate testimony).
>
> Below are the number of persons voting in-person early by day during
> Florida’s early voting period in 2008. The two important dates are Sunday
> October 26, 2008 and Sunday November 2, 2008. In Herron and Smith's key
> plot, the percentage of minorities voting on these Sunday's jumps up
> considerably. What is also important to note is that the number of persons
> voting early drops considerably on these days. It is not too hard to figure
> out what is going on here. Only twelve counties report early voting numbers
> on 10/26 and eleven counties report early voting numbers on 11/2. There are
> some heavy density minority communities like Broward and Dade among those
> reporting on Sundays. In other words, early polling places were closed on
> Sundays in the predominantly white areas.
>
> I've heard pundits claiming that the significant increases in early voting
> are a results of a "Pew to the Polls" church-led GOVT effort on Sundays.
> That does not square with my recollection of Florida's early voting in
> 2008.
> The Obama campaign begged local leaders to stop saying that an early vote
> would not be counted since early voting was a part of their voter
> mobilization strategy. I am willing to believe that some churches did
> indeed
> engage in GOTV efforts, but I do not believe that the key plot is
> indicative
> of efficacy of such efforts. We have case selection bias to contend with
> first.
>
> Now, given these numbers there is a *stronger* argument that the new
> Florida
> law restricting in-person early voting on the Sunday before the election to
> be in discriminatory since Sunday early voting is being implemented in
> primarily urban counties. Some may argue there is a Bush v Gore violation,
> but all Florida counties may implement in-person early voting as it is now.
> They may choose not to do so for cost reasons, or perhaps a more
> discriminatory purpose to prevent Democrats or minorities from voting (it
> is
> clear in Florida's statistics that Democrats favor in-person early voting
> over the Republican preferred absentee mail balloting). Understanding why
> some counties choose not to have Sunday early voting is a first step to
> addressing the real issue here.
>
> I think we need to understand why some Supervisors of Elections are not
> opening Sunday polling locations to better understand why this dynamic
> exists. And, to fully understand the effect of restricting Sunday early
> voting, we need to know if these Sunday early voters will vote on another
> day. Take Broward County for example...the early voting was at 14,922 on
> Friday October 24; 11,616 on Saturday, October 25; 11,198 on Sunday,
> October
> 26; and 18,586 on Monday, October 27. There were fewer in-person early
> voters during this weekend in Broward. If there was a "Pew to the Polls"
> GOTV effort, it does not appear to be particularly effective in Broward.
> I'd
> like to know more about the number of open polling places and their hours
> to
> understand this dynamic -- it could be that the decline is primarily driven
> by limited access to early polling locations on the weekend. Still, these
> numbers suggest to me that the effects of limiting Sunday early voting
> would
> not be as dramatic on minorities -- but would still discriminatory -- as
> they may appear in Herron and Smith's key plot. Again, let me be clear in
> case anyone tries to misquote me out of context: there is a strong case
> that
> limiting Sunday early voting is discriminatory.
>
> Early Voting by Day
> Date of EarlyVote
> Count
> 10/20/2008
> 157,912
> 10/21/2008
> 161,083
> 10/22/2008
> 167,922
> 10/23/2008
> 166,236
> 10/24/2008
> 183,179
> 10/25/2008
> 133,534
> 10/26/2008 (Sunday)
> 53,094
> 10/27/2008
> 201,479
> 10/28/2008
> 215,911
> 10/29/2008
> 272,507
> 10/30/2008
> 281,838
> 10/31/2008
> 298,692
> 11/1/2008
> 268,926
> 11/2/2008
> 76,013 (Sunday)
>
>
>
> ============
> Dr. Michael P. McDonald
> Associate Professor, George Mason University
> Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
>
>                             Mailing address:
> (o) 703-993-4191             George Mason University
> (f) 703-993-1399             Dept. of Public and International Affairs
> mmcdon at gmu.edu               4400 University Drive - 3F4
> http://elections.gmu.edu     Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
>
> From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick
> Hasen
> Sent: Sunday, January 29, 2012 6:56 PM
> To: law-election at uci.edu
> Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 1/29/12
>
> An Incomplete NPR Report on Voter ID
> Posted on January 29, 2012 3:52 pm by Rick Hasen
> NPR reports “Why New Photo ID Laws Mean Some Won’t Vote.”  While this is an
> interesting report on who doesn’t have voter id and on how the data skew,
> it
> is really incomplete.  This is what we need to know to understand how new
> i.d. requirements may affect upcoming elections:
> 1. how many people don’t have i.d. now and how do those data skew?
> 2. of those people who don’t have i.d.
> a. how many want but cannot get the i.d. needed to vote (either because the
> documents needed for the i.d. are not (easily) available or affordable, for
> religious reasons, or some other reason)?; and
> b. of those people, how many would vote, but for the lack of a voter i.d.?
> and
> c. of those people lacking i.d. who want to vote, how many may vote without
> i.d., either through an absentee ballot, with an affidavit or witness
> statement, or through some other means?
> In short, knowing how many people don’t have i.d. now is the beginning, not
> the end, of the inquiry about how voter i.d. laws will affect the outcome
> of
> elections.  I have yet to see good data on these final questions.  The best
> analyses I have seen so far on this question are Pitts and Neumann and
> Erikson and Minnite. Both show we are a long way from being able to answer
> these questions, though there is reason to believe the numbers of people
> actually deterred by voter i.d. requirements likely are not enormous.
> Much more on this in The Voting Wars.
>
> Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars, voter id | Comments Off
> More from Texas Redistricting Blog
> Posted on January 29, 2012 3:37 pm by Rick Hasen
> See DOJ on the Meaning of the SCOTUS Opinion and a Press Roundup.
>
> Posted in Department of Justice, redistricting, Voting Rights Act |
> Comments
> Off
> “In Nonstop Whirlwind of Campaigns, Twitter Is a Critical Tool”
> Posted on January 29, 2012 11:30 am by Rick Hasen
> NYT reports.
>
> Posted in social media and social protests | Comments Off
> “Virgin Islands Lawyer Sues U.S. Government Over Right to Vote”
> Posted on January 29, 2012 11:26 am by Rick Hasen
> Links to complaint, etc. here.  More from the Virgin Islands Daily News.
>
> Posted in voting | Comments Off
> “US Senate Testimony on ‘Protecting the Right to Vote in the Sunshine
> State’”
> Posted on January 29, 2012 11:23 am by Rick Hasen
> Dan Smith:
> Here’s a copy of my written testimony with Prof. Michael Herron, which I
> presented on January 27, 2012 in Tampa, Florida, before the United States
> Senate Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil
> Rights and Human Rights, “New State Voting Laws II: Protecting the Right to
> Vote in the Sunshine State.”
> Here are the slides I projected during my 7 minute oral testimony.
> And here’s the link to the key plot showing by day the racial/ethnic early
> in-person voting in Florida in the 2008 General Election.
>
> Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars | Comments Off
> “Super PACs are overwhelming the political process”
> Posted on January 29, 2012 11:22 am by Rick Hasen
> This editorial appears in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
>
> Posted in campaign finance | Comments Off
> “Charlie White’s freedom, political future on the line”
> Posted on January 29, 2012 11:20 am by Rick Hasen
> Indiana Secretary of State goes on trial on voter fraud charges Monday.
>
> Posted in SOS White | Comments Off
> Roundup of CA Supreme Court Redistricting Decision Stories
> Posted on January 28, 2012 3:36 pm by Rick Hasen
> Here.  My earlier coverage is here.
>
> Posted in citizen commissions, redistricting | Comments Off
> “Texas voter ID case: Meet the three-judge panel”
> Posted on January 28, 2012 3:34 pm by Rick Hasen
> Not a great draw for the Lone Star State.
>
> Posted in voter id, Voting Rights Act | Comments Off
> “Florida’s election law draws scrutiny; A U.S. Senate committee raised
> questions over Florida’s new election law at a field hearing in Tampa”
> Posted on January 27, 2012 9:08 pm by Rick Hasen
> Miami Herald: “Testimony centered on the most controversial changes:
> reducing early voting from 14 days to eight, from 96 hours to a minimum of
> 48, and ending it on the Saturday before the election; requiring
> third-party
> groups to register and face fines if they turn in voter registration forms
> after 48 hours; and requiring voters to cast provisional ballots if they
> moved from another county since they last voted if they did not update
> their
> addresses.”
>
> Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars | Comments Off
> “Censoring of Tweets Sets Off #Outrage”
> Posted on January 27, 2012 9:04 pm by Rick Hasen
> NYT: “But this week, in a sort of coming-of-age moment, Twitter announced
> that upon request, it would block certain messages in countries where they
> were deemed illegal. The move immediately prompted outcry, argument and
> even
> calls for a boycott from some users. “
>
> Posted in social media and social protests | Comments Off
> --
> Rick Hasen
> Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
> UC Irvine School of Law
> 401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
> Irvine, CA 92697-8000
> 949.824.3072 - office
> 949.824.0495 - fax
> rhasen at law.uci.edu
> http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
> http://electionlawblog.org
>
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