[EL] millions of ballots left to count in CA alone & national vote totals

[Douglas Johnson]

For those trying to estimate national vote totals for each candidate, note
that as of 5pm Thursday California has over 3 million ballots left to count
<http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/2012-elections/nov-general/pdf/unprocessed-
ballots-report.pdf> :

 

Given that Romney won 38.6% of the vote (as counted so far) in California,
and anticipating a slightly lower percentage for Romney among late ballots
than among votes generally, he's expected to add 1 million-plus votes as
those remaining ballots in CA are counted. Note that this will easily put
Romney's vote total over McCain's 2008 vote total (despite numerous media
reports using preliminary counts). 

 

It won't get Obama to his 2008 level, but the addition of about 1.8 million
likely Obama votes from the pool of not-yet-counted CA ballots will make a
significant dent in the President's current 5.7 million-vote gap below his
2008 vote count.

 

- Doug

 

Douglas Johnson

Fellow

Rose Institute of State and Local Government

m 310-200-2058

o 909-621-8159

douglas.johnson at cmc.edu

 

 

 

 

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