[EL] Black vote in Maryland gay marriage question

[Scott Rafferty]

Earlier this year, there was very vocal opposition from some of Maryland's
black leadership regarding the gay marriage statute, leading to the
referendum, which supported the law by 52%.   Maryland has by far the
largest black population (30%) of any of the 9 states in which gay marriage
is legal.   There are several interesting statistics that suggest a
dramatic shift in black support for gay marriage  since California Prop. 8.

1. Total national popular vote appears to be about 94% of the 2008 level.
 Every county in Maryland outperformed this turnout except for the
wealthiest (Montgomery) to achieve a statewide average of 97%.
Despite being a disaster area (and having a declining population),
Baltimore City (64% black) had 98% of 2008.
Prince Georges (65% black) had 99% of 2008 (although its population has
increased about 3%).

2. Drop off on Question 6 from the presidential race was very low statewide
- 1.6%.  This is not typical of ballot questions in Maryland.  Question 1
dropped off 7%.
The black jurisdictions had slightly higher drop off - 3% in PG and 4.5% in
Baltimore City

3. Baltimore City supported gay marriage 55%-41%.  Prince Georges opposed,
but only 49%-48%.

4. Baltimore City provided 32% of the margin of victory.  The most populous
county, Montgomery, was 64% for, providing 121% of the margin of victory.
 Montgomery is less black (18%v.30%) but more Hispanic (18%v/9%) than the
state.

5. Except for the four other suburban counties (won by about 4%), gay
marriage was trounced 42%/56% in the rest of the state.

Obviously, support from Martin O'Malley and the President were very
influential in Maryland.  Still, this is a pretty good omen for gay
marriage, which is still banned in 13 of the 20 states with black
populations over 10%.  (The DC council approved gay marriage in 2009, and
prohibited a referendum on the basis that the public cannot vote to limit
minority rights - compare Judge Reinhardt's opinion on Prop. 8.)




Scott Rafferty
1913 Whitecliff Ct
Walnut Creek CA
 mobile 202-380-5525
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