[EL] Obama is not first president to be re-elected with decreased support

Mon Nov 26 18:53:54 PST 2012

Lots of things that one might think are fairly common, concerning presidential elections, are not common.  In the entire history of the Democratic Party, going back to 1796, only three times has a Democratic president been defeated for re-election in a general election:  Jimmy Carter, Grover Cleveland, Martin Van Buren.

Another strange fact is that the Democratic Party has never nominated either a presidential candidate, or a vice-presidential candidate, from a western state.

Richard Winger

415-922-9779

PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147

--- On Mon, 11/26/12, Lillie Coney <coney at lillieconey.net> wrote:

From: Lillie Coney <coney at lillieconey.net>
Subject: Re: [EL] Obama is not first president to be re-elected with decreased support
To: "Stebenne, David" <stebenne.1 at osu.edu>
Cc: "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Date: Monday, November 26, 2012, 6:13 PM

I would add that the final numbers on the popular vote, although unlikely to change the situation outlined by the replies to this thread, will be the official numbers for this election.  The final tallies may not be known for some states until December.  This was an extraordinary election because at the start I thought the voter participation rates for African-American and Latino voters would have been lower--much lower than the final tally appears to be placing participation rates.  My projection was based on the lack of urgency that history was about to be made, but I was pleasantly surprised that voter ID and changes in poll place practices had in fact created a new set of circumstances for the urgency argument that spurred voter education efforts regarding the fragility of voting rights. This may not be lasting, but it was refreshing to see people place a premium on their right to vote and back it up with a commitment that was sustained through
 election day.
On Nov 26, 2012, at 11:38 AM, Stebenne, David wrote:
Agreed.  To a political historian, the most significant comparison is to the last time an incumbent president was re-elected after presiding over four years of what all would agree was a period of high unemployment  that didn't go down much - which was 1940.  After that, the most important comparison would be to Democrats who have won two consecutive terms with a popular majority each time; Obama is the third, with Jackson and FDR as the only two others.  In short, it's an unusual re-election victory, but not for the reason most commonly cited. David StebenneProfessor of History and LawOhio State UniversityFrom: Derek Muller [derek.muller at gmail.com]
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2012 10:29 AM
To: Stebenne, David
Cc: richardwinger at yahoo.com; law-election at uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] Obama is not first president to be re-elected with decreased support

I think the more accurate (but exceedingly technical) articulation is that President Obama is the first president to be re-elected to a second term (this excludes Roosevelt's third and fourth terms, which are, in a sense, sui generis, now constitutionally so) with both fewer popular votes and fewer electoral votes (this excludes both Madison and Wilson). Another version of this I read was that President Obama is the first president to be re-elected to a second term with fewer popular votes, a lower percentage of the popular vote, fewer electoral votes, and fewer states won. But, as Richard notes, the Madison example is misleading due to the 1810 apportionment. And, regardless, these kinds of "unprecedented" statistics may be of little value.

Derek

Derek T. MullerAssociate Professor of LawPepperdine University School of Law24255 Pacific Coast Hwy.Malibu, CA 90263+1 310-506-7058SSRN Author Page: http://ssrn.com/author=464341

On Mon, Nov 26, 2012 at 5:14 AM, Stebenne, David <stebenne.1 at osu.edu> wrote:
And let's not forget FDR, whose support decreased in 1940 and still more in 1944, when he was re-elected to his 3rd and 4th terms. David StebenneProfessor of History and LawOhio State UniversityFrom: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Richard Winger [richardwinger at yahoo.com]
Sent: Friday, November 23, 2012 10:29 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] Obama is not first president to be re-elected with decreased support

http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/11/23/president-obama-is-not-the-first-president-re-elected-with-a-smaller-share-of-either-the-popular-vote-or-the-electoral-college-vote/

Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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