[EL] Lessons from “Va. Republicans push re-drawn district map through Senate”
Michael P McDonald
mmcdon at gmu.edu
Tue Jan 22 10:44:55 PST 2013
The proposed Virginia Senate redistricting plan can be viewed, here, along with other characteristics of the districts:
http://redistricting.dls.virginia.gov/2010/RedistrictingPlans.aspx#38
If this plan is adopted there will be several interesting election law issues, among them:
- The proposed plan creates a sixth majority BVAP district, one more than the existing plan. (A University of Virginia student team was the first to demonstrate this concept in our student redistricting competition in 2011.) Republican Senator Watkins is touting this as a virtue of the plan. The existing plan was precleared by DOJ, so Section 5 did not require this district. Have Republicans used race as a predominant factor when creating this district? If so, did the state have a compelling state interest in creating this district under Section 2?
- Democrats are likely to challenge the re-redistricting under a Virginia constitutional revision adopted in 2005 that has language which may indicate such a re-redistricting is unconstitutional. The congressional districts were also litigated under this provision. A state district court denied the challenge, and Democrats declined to appeal to the Virginia Supreme Court. Democrats were not strongly in favor of appealing to the Supreme Court since it would have put their congressional incumbents at risk, but they will be highly motivated to challenge this Senate plan. A favorable ruling from the Virginia Supreme Court would open the congressional plan to a similar legal attack.
- Will Democrats attack the House of Delegates plan? Virginia's constitution requires compactness, and neither the House nor Senate plans were particularly compact. Plans that I helped draw for the governor's commission as well as those drawn by students in our competition demonstrated how it is possible to draw substantially more compact districts than those adopted for the House. Another exposure of the House plan is that I showed it is possible to also draw an additional majority BVAP House district, one that I believe may affect the House committee chairman in charge of redistricting.
In a forthcoming University of Richmond Law Review article, Micah Altman and I discuss this very scenario of a Senate re-redistricting. We may now need to revise before we go to publication.
============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor
George Mason University
4400 University Drive - 3F4
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
703-993-4191 (office)
e-mail: mmcdon at gmu.edu
web: http://elections.gmu.edu
twitter: @ElectProject
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This news item from Rick underscores just how far we can expect efforts to
manipulate our electoral rules might go in some states. Those who dismiss
the potential of similar powergrabs to distort the Electoral College by
going to congressional district allocation of electoral votes in
Democratic-leaning swing states (like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and
Wisconsin) simply aren't paying attention,.
In sum, without any warning, 20 Republican senators took advantage of an
African American state senator being in DC for the inauguration on Martin
Luther King Day to jam through a Republican gerrymander designed to ensure
the state senate joins all the deep south state legislative chambers in
being locked up for Republicans for the next generation. Excluding
Maryland, which has its own politic dynamic locking it down for Democrats,
the only southern legislative chambers still in Democratic control are one
house in Kentucky and two in West Virginia, both states with relatively few
African Americans. I would be stunned if any of the otehr legislative
chambers flip back to Democrats in the next decade, and probably not for at
least two -- meaning that a majority of the nation's African Americans live
in a region where their preferred state legislative candidates are nearly
guaranteed to be out of power for a long time.
How Gov. McDonnell responds to this move will be very telling.
Rob Richie
On Mon, Jan 21, 2013 at 11:29 PM, Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu> wrote:
>
> ?Va. Republicans push re-drawn district map through Senate?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46414>
> Posted on January 21, 2013 8:14 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46414>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> WaPo<http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/va-politics/va-republicans-push-re-drawn-district-map-through-senate/2013/01/21/0277795c-6436-11e2-b84d-21c7b65985ee_story.html>:
> ?Senate Republicans pushed a re-drawn state political map past
> flabbergasted Democrats on Monday, pulling off what would amount to a
> mid-decade redistricting of Senate lines if the plan gets approval from the
> House and governor and stands up to anticipated legal challenges. The bill,
> approved 20 to 19, would revamp the Senate map to concentrate minority
> voters in a new Southside district and would change most, if not all,
> existing district lines. Democrats, still scrambling Monday night to figure
> out the impact, said they thought that the new map would make at least five
> districts held by Democrats heavily Republican. The map puts two sitting
> senators, R. Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) and Emmett W. Hanger Jr. (R-Augusta),
> into a single district.?TPM<http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2013/01/a_footnote_to_the_virginia_senate_story.php?ref=fpblg>
> :
>
> As mentioned earlier, seizing on the absence of a Democratic senator who
> happens to be a veteran of the civil rights movement and was in Washington,
> on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, for the second inauguration of the
> country?s first black president, Republicans in the evenly split Virginia
> state Senate pushed through a surprise mid-decade redistricting plan<http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/01/republicans-dirty-trick-inauguration.php?ref=fpblg>to try to gain decisive control of the body in the next election.
>
> We?re not done yet.
>
> At the end of this wild day, the ?Senate adjourned in memory or (sic)
> General Thomas J. ?Stonewall? Jackson,? according to the minutes<http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/01/republicans-dirty-trick-inauguration.php?ref=fpblg>of the session. Jan. 21 is the Confederate general?s birthday.
>
>
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46414&title=%E2%80%9CVa.%20Republicans%20push%20re-drawn%20district%20map%20through%20Senate%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in redistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6> | Comments
> Off
> Quote of the Day <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46411>
> Posted on January 21, 2013 8:07 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46411>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> ?Our journey is not complete until no citizen is forced to wait for hours
> to exercise the right to vote.?
>
> ?President Obama<http://politicalwire.com/archives/2013/01/21/president_obamas_second_inaugural_address.html#052582a>,
> in his second inaugural address, doubling down on his ?We have to fix that?
> comment on long lines at the polling place.
>
> The *NY Times* also reports that the President aims to work for ?less
> restrictive voter identification laws? among other priorities for the
> second term.
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46411&title=Quote%20of%20the%20Day&description=>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The
> Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
> ?Plea agreement reached in vote fraud case; Marshall to plead guilty to
> 3 charges related to absentee voting irregularities in 2010?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46408>
> Posted on January 21, 2013 7:32 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46408>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> News
> <http://plaindealer-sun.com/main.asp?SectionID=3&SubSectionID=40&ArticleID=24245>from
> Indiana.
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46408&title=%E2%80%9CPlea%20agreement%20reached%20in%20vote%20fraud%20case%3B%20Marshall%20to%20plead%20guilty%20to%203%20charges%20related%20to%20absentee%20voting%20irregularities%20in%202010%E2%80%B3&description=>
> Posted in absentee ballots <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=53>,
> chicanery <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>
> | Comments Off
> ?Colorado Victory: Judge Rules for Voting Rights?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46405>
> Posted on January 21, 2013 7:29 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46405>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Brennan Center<http://www.brennancenter.org/content/resource/colorado_victory_judge_rules_for_voting_rights>:
> ?The voting rights of thousands of Colorado citizens were protected today
> as a state district court judge blocked Secretary of State Scott Gessler?s
> controversial interpretation of Colorado?s mail ballot election law. Under
> Sec. Gessler?s reading of the law, county clerks could not mail ballots in
> elections conducted only by mail to voters who did not vote in the most
> recent general election. In effect, thousands of eligible voters ?
> including many longtime voters ? would not be able to vote unless they
> jumped through new and burdensome hurdles.?
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46405&title=%E2%80%9CColorado%20Victory%3A%20Judge%20Rules%20for%20Voting%20Rights%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in absentee ballots <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=53>, election
> administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>
> | Comments Off
> ?Benign Partisanship? <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46402>
> Posted on January 21, 2013 7:25 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46402>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Franita Tolson has posted this draft<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2199003>on SSRN (
> *Notre Dame Law Review*). Here is the abstract:
>
> The Framers of the United States Constitution created our system of
> federalism based on the principle that political safeguards would protect
> the regulatory interests of the states from overreaching by the federal
> government. While many of these safeguards have since failed, others have
> emerged to insulate the states from an ever-expanding federal presence. One
> such safeguard is partisan gerrymandering, which allows states to draw
> legislative districts that reflect the partisan affiliation of a majority
> of the electorate, and in turn, send a delegation to Congress that is as
> ideologically cohesive as practicable. In making this argument, this
> Article corrects a basic misunderstanding in the political safeguards
> literature: that the Senate is the only chamber that the Framers
> constructed to protect state interests. In reality, a politically cohesive
> House delegation can ensure that the state?s preferred policy preferences
> shape federal lawmaking.
>
> This Article also illustrates that, in the context of congressional
> redistricting, the legal scholarship?s sole focus on ascertaining
> manageable judicial standards ignores the concerns about institutional
> legitimacy and judicially dictated political outcomes that are exacerbated
> by the federalism issues in this area. Despite the absence of standards,
> the broader structural implications of promoting ?federalism-reinforcing?
> gerrymandering require the Supreme Court to craft rules that encourage the
> use of mid-decade redistricting and at-large voting schemes; that limit the
> authority of independent commissions to draw redistricting plans; and that
> promote strong state political parties, all of which will help preserve the
> states? ability to utilize the federalism benefits that flow from partisan
> redistricting.
>
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46402&title=%E2%80%9CBenign%20Partisanship%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in redistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6> | Comments
> Off
> ?THE CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS, MINORITY VOTING RIGHTS, AND THE U.S.
> SUPREME COURT? <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46400>
> Posted on January 21, 2013 7:23 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46400>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> The Law and Politics Book Review offers this review<http://www.lpbr.net/2013/01/the-congressional-black-caucus-minority.html>
> .
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46400&title=%E2%80%9CTHE%20CONGRESSIONAL%20BLACK%20CAUCUS%2C%20MINORITY%20VOTING%20RIGHTS%2C%20AND%20THE%20U.S.%20SUPREME%20COURT%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in Supreme Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>, Voting
> Rights Act <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15> | Comments Off
> ?Report Highlights Unexpected Results and Unequal Access to Early
> Voting in the 2012 Presidential Election Compared to 2008?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46398>
> Posted on January 21, 2013 7:22 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46398>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> The following press release arrived via email:
>
> *Report Highlights Unexpected Results and Unequal Access to Early Voting
> in the 2012 Presidential Election Compared to 2008*
>
> *Advocates call on Ohio Legislature to change election rules to provide
> for diversity*
>
> A team led by Norman Robbins, Research Director, Northeast Ohio Voter
> Advocates, today reported<http://www.nova-ohio.org/analysis%20early-absentee%20voting%202012%20vers10%201-19-13.pdf>unexpected results on early in-person voting in the 2012 Presidential
> election, highlighting both important similarities and important
> differences between Ohio?s counties, which should be considered in new
> legislation.
>
> The study found that early in-person voting was almost equally popular
> in smaller rural and larger urban counties (counties with less than or
> greater than 100,000 total votes cast, respectively). This happened because
> smaller counties increased early voting by 33% from 2008 to 2012. Clearly,
> early in-person voting in Ohio is popular and here to stay.
>
> Not all news was good. During the last and only weekend of early voting
> in 2012, in-person voters had to wait 1 to 4 hours in most larger counties
> but less than a half hour in smaller counties. ?This issue of unequal
> access for voters in different sized counties because of inflexible rules
> demands legislative correction?, Robbins said.
>
> Another unexpected finding was that despite the mailing of applications
> for vote-by-mail ballots to all active voters in the state, mail-in
> ballots as a percent of the total vote increased by only about 1% over that
> in 2008 (when only a few counties sent voters such applications). Some
> counties, however, saw a modest increase in voting by mail, and may have
> benefited from sending the applications.
>
> There was considerable fall-off in vote-by-mail and especially in early
> in-person voting in non-Presidential elections (2009-2011) compared to the
> Presidential elections of 2008 and 2012.
>
> In order to provide equal access to early voting, to respect
> differences in voting patterns and resources in different counties, and to
> acknowledge different turnout in Presidential and non-Presidential
> elections, future legislation will need ?uniform? formulas rather than
> inflexible ?uniform? rules to provide for Ohio?s diversity (as discussed in
> the report).
>
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46398&title=%E2%80%9CReport%20Highlights%20Unexpected%20Results%20and%20Unequal%20Access%20to%20Early%20Voting%20in%20the%202012%20Presidential%20Election%20Compared%20to%202008%E2%80%B3&description=>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The
> Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
> ?Democrat Ekes Out Senate Win? <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46394>
> Posted on January 20, 2013 8:48 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46394>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> 18 vote victory<http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/19/nyregion/cecilia-tkaczyk-democrat-ekes-out-win-in-republican-senate-district.html>out of 126,000 votes cast in NY Senate race.
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46394&title=%E2%80%9CDemocrat%20Ekes%20Out%20Senate%20Win%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in campaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, election
> administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> | Comments Off
> ?Fiscal Footnote: Big Senate Gift to Drug Maker?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46392>
> Posted on January 20, 2013 8:46 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46392>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Must read NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/20/us/medicare-pricing-delay-is-political-win-for-amgen-drug-maker.html?ref=politics>on a big favor to AmGen buried in Congress?s ?fiscal cliff? bill.
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46392&title=%E2%80%9CFiscal%20Footnote%3A%20Big%20Senate%20Gift%20to%20Drug%20Maker%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, legislation
> and legislatures <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27>, lobbying<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=28>
> | Comments Off
> ?Obama campaign final fundraising total: $1.1 billion?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46389>
> Posted on January 19, 2013 3:38 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46389>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Politico reports.<http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/obama-campaign-final-fundraising-total-1-billion-86445.html?hp=l4>
> <http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/obama-campaign-final-fundraising-total-1-billion-86445.html?hp=l4>
>
> This is no surprise. I believe I predicted Obama would reach a billion
> dollars for 2012 right after the 2008 election?even though the Obama
> campaign protested that it would not be able to raise a billion dollars
> during the 2012 election.
>
>
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46389&title=%E2%80%9CObama%20campaign%20final%20fundraising%20total%3A%20%241.1%20billion%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> | Comments
> Off
> ?The Election Disaster That Wasn?t; America?s poorly designed ballots
> could have bungled the 2012 election. How we can fix them before 2016.?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46384>
> Posted on January 19, 2013 2:08 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46384>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Mark Vanhoenacker writes<http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/design/2013/01/ballot_design_america_s_elections_depend_on_confusing_badly_designed_ballots.html>for
> *Slate.
> *There?s also a great slide show<http://www.slate.com/slideshows/life/the-most-amazing-voting-ballots-from-around-the-world.html>of ballots from around the world.
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46384&title=%E2%80%9CThe%20Election%20Disaster%20That%20Wasn%E2%80%99t%3B%20America%E2%80%99s%20poorly%20designed%20ballots%20could%20have%20bungled%20the%202012%20election.%20How%20we%20can%20fix%20them%20before%202016.%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The
> Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
> ?Well-Trod Path: Political Donor to Ambassador?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46381>
> Posted on January 19, 2013 2:05 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46381>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Interesting NYT report.<http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/19/us/politics/well-trod-path-political-donor-to-ambassador.html?ref=politics&_r=0>
> <http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/19/us/politics/well-trod-path-political-donor-to-ambassador.html?ref=politics&_r=0>
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46381&title=%E2%80%9CWell-Trod%20Path%3A%20Political%20Donor%20to%20Ambassador%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,
> campaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59> | Comments Off
> 7th Circuit Holds Oral Argument in Wisconsin Campaign Finance
> Disclosure Case <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46378>
> Posted on January 18, 2013 6:00 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46378>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> 12-2915<http://www.ca7.uscourts.gov/fdocs/docs.fwx?caseno=12-2915&submit=showdkt> Wisconsin
> Right to L v. David Deininger civil 01/18/2013 Oral Argument<http://www.ca7.uscourts.gov/fdocs/docs.fwx?submit=showbr&shofile=12-2915_001.mp3>
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46378&title=7th%20Circuit%20Holds%20Oral%20Argument%20in%20Wisconsin%20Campaign%20Finance%20Disclosure%20Case&description=>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> | Comments
> Off
> ?Full hearing on Texas redistricting appeal now not likely this term?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46376>
> Posted on January 18, 2013 5:19 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=46376>
> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Texas Redistricting<http://txredistricting.org/post/40866010029/full-hearing-on-texas-redistricting-appeal-now-not>:
> ??many observers have speculated that the high court has deferred deciding
> what to do with the Texas case until it decides in *Shelby Co. v. Holder*whether section 5 of the Voting Rights Act remains constitutional?.While
> waiting arguably makes sense, the challenge could become having to quickly
> draw remedial maps if section 5 is upheld ? since a decision in the*Shelby Co.
> * case very likely might not come until late June. Any changes to the
> maps would require redrawing precinct lines and a number of other technical
> steps, and the countdown to the filing date for the Texas primary starts in
> September.?
> [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D46376&title=%E2%80%9CFull%20hearing%20on%20Texas%20redistricting%20appeal%20now%20not%20likely%20this%20term%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in redistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>, Supreme
> Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>, Voting Rights Act<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15>
> | Comments Off
>
> --
> Rick Hasen
> Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
> UC Irvine School of Law
> 401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
> Irvine, CA 92697-8000949.824.3072 - office949.824.0495 - faxrhasen at law.uci.eduhttp://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.htmlhttp://electionlawblog.org
>
>
> _______________________________________________
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