[EL] new ID data

[Jonathan Rodden Stanford]

I haven¹t seen it posted on this list yet, so here is a link to what is by
far the most thorough empirical analysis of the impact of voter id laws:

http://kyledropp.weebly.com/uploads/1/2/0/9/12094568/dropp_voter_id.pdf

Best,
Jonathan



On 7/23/13 10:10 AM, "Rick Hasen" <rhasen at law.uci.edu> wrote:

>    I'd add that a .3 swing is a pretty significant risk of swinging a swing
> state even if one were concerned only about presidential elections.
>  
> On 7/23/13 10:06 AM, Justin Levitt wrote:
>  
>  
>>   
>> What's also missing in this analysis is concern about anything other than the
>> final outcome of a Presidential race.
>>  
>>  Yes, the  piece
>> <http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113986/voter-id-north-carolina-law-hurts-
>> democrats>  finds that "the electoral consequences of voter ID seem
>> relatively marginal," by noting that with ID, Obama's final share of the
>> North Carolina vote might have dropped from 48.3 to 48%.
>>  
>>  But the piece also notes that this latest data reveals that there are
>> somewhere around 319,000 registered voters currently without a state-issued
>> photo ID, "just" (just!) 138,425 of whom participated in the 2012 general
>> election.  There is no estimate of the number of currently unregistered but
>> eligible voters who don't now have a state-issued photo ID, but it's got to
>> add to the pile.
>>  
>>  For those who think the most important measure of the impact of an electoral
>> policy is the outcome of a Presidential race, why have a national election at
>> all?  Polling science is pretty good: we could just declare the winner of
>> every state where the margin of victory is larger than the margin of error in
>> several consecutive polls in the last week of October, and only bother with
>> actually letting people vote in the very few states where polls don't deliver
>> a clear answer.  Holding an election seems like a really expensive way to
>> confirm the pretty-much-guaranteed winner.  Or, put differently, if you're
>> just focused on Presidential outcome, "the electoral consequences of holding
>> an election seem relatively marginal."
>>  
>>  Justin 
>>  

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