[EL] FairVote blog on sham findings in new True the Vote report

[Rob Richie]

As an addendum. Since we posted Andrea's blog last night, True the Vote has
changed its report, but with nary an apology for its huge error that was
widely reported in the conservative blogosphere. See
http://www.scribd.com/doc/127481956/2012-Voter-Suppression-Myth.

The report authors now simply say in the section of the report that had
their erroneous turnout conclusions

<<  The Real Impacts of Voter ID Laws:  After new data being made available
regarding 2012 turnout rates, True the Vote is currently reassessing its
methodology for comparing the impacts voter ID laws. This report will be
updated shortly. >>

Note that Michael McDonald's turnout data on 2012 has been available for
weeks. But True the Vote chose to use his data only for 2008 and then use
turnout of registered voters for 2012.

Perhaps someone should take a look at its other findings in its report on
voter complaints.

- Rob

#########

On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 7:21 PM, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org> wrote:

>
> Yesterday Rick linked to the True the Vote report on the alleged positive
> impact of voter ID laws on voter turnout. Paul Gronke also sent a message
> about it.
>
> My colleague Andie Levien decided to take a closer look and found a major
> methodological error that reversed its conclusions. Read below for the
> link, the opening, and a key excerpt.
>
> - Rob
>
> ######
>
> http://www.fairvote.org/true-the-vote-fudges-the-numbers-in-new-turnout-study
>
> True The Vote Fudges the Numbers in New Turnout Study
> by Andrea Levien <http://www.fairvote.org/list/author/Andrea_Levien> //
> Published February 28, 2013
>
>  True the Vote, an organization dedicated to eradicating voter fraud
> through controversial methods<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-voting-rights-tea-party-20121004,0,3351653.story>,
> issued a report<http://www.scribd.com/doc/127481956/2012-Voter-Suppression-Myth> on
> February 27 concluding that voter ID laws and other election changes
> allegedly meant to reduce voter fraud not only did not have an adverse
> impact on turnout in the 2012 elections, but may have helped to increased
> turnout. Its findings have been trumpeted by many news outlets who do not
> believe such laws suppress voter turnout.
>
> But it turns out the report’s authors made a huge methodological mistake.
> They compared turnout of *eligible *voters in 2008 to turnout of *
> registered *voters in 2012. Correcting this error reverses their
> findings. All but one of the states with these new laws experienced a
> decline in voter turnout, and most experienced a decline greater than the
> national turnout decline from 2008 to 2012....
>
> ...True the Vote should correct this error and explain that voter turnout
> in fact decreased in these states. This is not to say that this turnout
> decline was necessarily *because *of these new laws. Every state that
> experienced a turnout decrease greater than the national average was also
> either an ignored spectator state or a state that experienced a sharp
> decrease in presidential campaign attention between 2008 and 2012. But to
> contend the turnout in these states increased, and that somehow voter ID
> laws are to thank for this increase, makes True the Vote’s findings not
> very true at all.
>
>
>
> --
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> "Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"
>
> Rob Richie
> Executive Director
>
> FairVote
> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
> Takoma Park, MD 20912
> www.fairvote.org  <http://www.fairvote.org> rr at fairvote.org
> (301) 270-4616
>
> Please support FairVote through action and tax-deductible donations -- see
> http://fairvote.org/donate. For federal employees, please consider  a
> gift to us through the Combined Federal Campaign (FairVote's  CFC number is
> 10132.) Thank you!
>



-- 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"

Rob Richie
Executive Director

FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
www.fairvote.org  <http://www.fairvote.org> rr at fairvote.org
(301) 270-4616

Please support FairVote through action and tax-deductible donations -- see
http://fairvote.org/donate. For federal employees, please consider  a gift
to us through the Combined Federal Campaign (FairVote's  CFC number is
10132.) Thank you!
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://webshare.law.ucla.edu/Listservs/law-election/attachments/20130301/327af20a/attachment.html>