[EL] What if Bachmann resigns?

Wed May 29 20:41:02 PDT 2013

Fair point. But elected officials and political strategists *think *special
elections and different turnout models matter. That's sometimes -- not
always -- why members of Congress resign rather than wait it out. Recent
evidence certainly suggests that that strategy can backfire, as it did in
the Weiner seat and several others where the immediate political
environment mattered more than turnout.

Mark Schmitt
Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute <http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
202/246-2350
gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
twitter: mschmitt9

On Wed, May 29, 2013 at 9:20 PM, Gaddie, Ronald K. <rkgaddie at ou.edu> wrote:

>  Special elections behave like regular open seats. While turnout might be
> lower, they most always are driven by the same factors and influences.
>
>    Ronald Keith Gaddie, Ph.D.
>  Professor of Political Science
> General Editor, *Social Science Quarterly*
> Co-editor, *The American Review of Politics*
> The University of Oklahoma
> 455 West Lindsey Street, Room 222
> Norman, OK  73019-2001
> Phone 405-325-4989
> Fax 405-325-0718
> E-mail: rkgaddie at ou.edu
> http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/G/Ronald.K.Gaddie-1
> http://socialsciencequarterly.org
>     ------------------------------
> *From:* law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [
> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Mark Schmitt [
> schmitt.mark at gmail.com]
>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 29, 2013 8:15 PM
> *To:* law-election at uci.edu
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] What if Bachmann resigns?
>
>
>  There have been 16 mid-term resignations from the House in the past two
> congresses. Some were for egregious scandals (like Weiner-gate), but most
> were either for the purpose of (1) getting the clock started on the
> lobbying waiting period or (2) betting that a low-turnout special election
> will be better for your party or your preferred successor than an open-seat
> general. It's really quite outrageous, given the cost of a special election.
>
>  Bachmann did have a weird line in her video statement (which is very
> amusing, especially the music, although you'll never get those 8-1/2
> minutes back), where she said that "eight years is long enough to serve
> representing one specific congressional district." Is there some other
> district she might aim to run in? If so, or if she aims to run against
> Franken, I think she might not resign; otherwise, I'm sure she will.
>
>
> Mark Schmitt
> Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute<http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
> 202/246-2350
> gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
> twitter: mschmitt9
>
>
> On Wed, May 29, 2013 at 8:34 PM, Schultz, David A. <dschultz at hamline.edu>wrote:
>
>>   What if Michele Bachmann decides to step down instead of serving out
>> her term?  What then?
>>
>>  The governor does not have the authority to fill the position and
>> instead it must go to a special election.  This would deprive Democrat Mark
>> Dayton from appointing a Democrat to fill the position.
>>
>>  I am betting a dollar that Bachmann resigns before her term ends.  The
>> longer she is in office the less and less her (political) capital or
>> marketability is.
>>
>>  See below.
>>
>> 204D.29 REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS VACANCY.
>> Subdivision 1.Scope; definition.
>>
>> (a) A vacancy in the office of representative in Congress must be filled
>> as specified in this section.
>>
>> (b) "Vacancy," as used in this section, means a vacancy in the office of
>> representative in Congress.
>>  Subd. 2.Vacancy 27 weeks or more before state primary.
>>
>> (a) If a vacancy occurs 27 weeks or more before the state primary, the
>> governor must issue a writ within three days of the vacancy for a
>> special election for that office to be held between 20 and 24 weeks of the
>> vacancy, but not fewer than 47 days before a state primary. A special
>> primary must be held 11 weeks before the special election or on the second
>> Tuesday in August if the general election is held on the first Tuesday
>> after the first Monday in November if any major party has more than one
>> candidate after the time for withdrawal has expired.
>>
>> (b) The filing period for a special election under this subdivision must
>> end on or before the 131st day before the special election. Minor party and
>> independent candidates must submit their petitions by the last day for
>> filing and signatures on the petitions must be dated from the date of the
>> vacancy through the last day for filing. There must be a one-day period
>> for withdrawal of candidates after the last day for filing.
>>  Subd. 3.Vacancy more than 22 weeks but fewer than 27 weeks before state
>> primary.
>>
>> (a) If a vacancy occurs more than 22 weeks but fewer than 27 weeks
>> before the state primary, the governor must issue a writ within three days
>> of the vacancy for a special election for that office to be held on the
>> day of the state primary with a special primary held 11 weeks before the
>> state primary, if any major party has more than one candidate after the
>> time for withdrawal has expired. The regularly scheduled election to fill
>> the next full term shall proceed pursuant to law.
>>
>> (b) The filing period for a special election under this subdivision must
>> end on or before the 147th day before the state primary. Minor party and
>> independent candidates must submit their petitions by the last day for
>> filing and signatures on the petitions must be dated from the date of the
>> vacancy through the last day for filing. There must be a one-day period
>> for withdrawal of candidates after the last day for filing. Candidates for
>> a special election under this subdivision are not subject to the
>> prohibition in section 204B.06<https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes?year=2012&id=204B.06#stat.204B.06>against having more than one affidavit of candidacy on file for the same
>> election.
>>
>> (c) The winner of a special election on the day of the state primary
>> under this subdivision shall serve the remainder of the vacant term and is
>> eligible to be seated in Congress upon issuance of the certificate of
>> election. The winner of the regularly scheduled term for that office at the
>> general election shall take office on the day new members of Congresstake office.
>>  Subd. 4.Vacancy 22 or fewer weeks before state primary but before
>> general election day.
>>
>> (a) If a vacancy occurs from 22 weeks before the state primary to the
>> day before the general election, no special election will be held. The
>> winner of the general election for the next full term for that office will
>> serve the remainder of the unexpired term and is eligible to be seated in
>> Congress immediately upon issuance of a certificate of election.
>>
>> (b) If the incumbent filed an affidavit of candidacy for reelection as
>> the candidate of a major political party and was nominated for the general
>> election ballot by that party and a vacancy occurs from the day of the
>> state primary until the date of the general election, there is a vacancyin nomination to be resolved pursuant to section
>> 204B.13<https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes?year=2012&id=204B.13#stat.204B.13>.
>>
>>  Subd. 5.Vacancy on or after election day and before the day new members
>> of Congress take office.
>>
>> (a) If a vacancy occurs between the day of the general election and the
>> day new members of Congress take office and the incumbent was not the
>> winner of the general election, the winner of the general election for the
>> next full term for that office is eligible to be seated in Congressimmediately upon issuance of a certificate of election or the
>> vacancy, whichever occurs last.
>>
>> (b) If a vacancy occurs on or after election day but before the day new
>> members of Congress take office and the incumbent was the winner of the
>> general election, the vacancy must be filled pursuant to subdivision 2.
>>
>>
>> --
>> David Schultz, Professor
>> Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
>> Hamline University
>> School of Business
>> 570 Asbury Street
>> Suite 308
>> St. Paul, Minnesota 55104
>> 651.523.2858 (voice)
>> 651.523.3098 (fax)
>> http://davidschultz.efoliomn.com/
>> http://works.bepress.com/david_schultz/
>> http://schultzstake.blogspot.com/
>> Twitter:  @ProfDSchultz
>> FacultyRow SuperProfessor, 2012, 2013
>>
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