[EL] North Carolina Elections

[Justin Riemer]

The press likes to get a hold of the largest number they can find and go
with it. Certainly the actual number of double voters is less than 35K but
it shouldn't take that many instances of it to be a problem (or worthy of
news). It looks like 765 names were IDed when adding the last four SSN for
matching. A false match when comparing first and last names, DOB, and last
four of SSN is incredibly unlikely.

This is a problem regardless of whether it is poll worker error or actual
double-voting. I suspect at least more than a handful of those 765 were
actual double-votes but the large majority were probably poll worker error.
 I don't think the resources are there for law enforcement to seriously
investigate all of these so we will likely never know the true number. Even
more than a few is a problem worth discussing.

Identifying the true number will be easier if we can improve our accuracy
of checking in voters at the polling place, Widespread adoption of bar
code/magnetic strip scanners and electronic poll books will go a long way
towards improving the voter history data.


--
J Justin Riemer
772-559-1567
JJustinRiemer at gmail.com




On Wed, Apr 2, 2014 at 7:53 PM, Even, Jeff (ATG) <JeffE at atg.wa.gov> wrote:

>  Ditto to Justin on this one.  Allegations about illegal voting based on
> name and dob matches are notorious for being wrong, to the point that it's
> frankly irresponsible to even pass them along, except to law enforcement,
> until they've been much more thoroughly vetted than a mere name and dob
> match.
>
>
>
> *From:* law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:
> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of *Justin
> Levitt
> *Sent:* Wednesday, April 02, 2014 4:40 PM
> *To:* law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] North Carolina Elections
>
>
>
> "National Review Online has a story re: approx 35 K instances of double
> voting in North Carolina."
>
>
> No, it doesn't.
>
> National Review Online has a headline<http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/374882/nc-state-board-finds-more-35k-incidents-double-voting-2012-andrew-johnson>re: approx 35 K instances of double voting in North Carolina.
> National Review Online has a *story* re: approx 35 K instances of North
> Carolina voters who apparently share the same first name, last name, and
> date of birth with voters in other states.
>
> In order to tell the difference between the two, you need to know:
>
>
>    - Whether there were any data entry errors by NC pollworkers, in
>    noting the individuals who voted,
>    - Whether there were any data entry errors by other states'
>    pollworkers, in noting the individuals who voted, and
>    - Statistics <http://ssrn.com/abstract=997888>.
>
> Turns out that if you actually run the numbers, there are a lot of people
> who share the same name and birthdate.  Or, if you prefer anecdote to math,
> just ask Florida Governor Richard Scott<http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/06/15/152432/florida-voter-roll-listed-gov.html>
> .
>
> I would be very interested indeed in how many of the 35 K alleged double
> voters are the results of mistakes or mistaken assumptions.  And I mean
> that.  I hope that there's real follow-up.
>
> And if there is, I'm going to bet<http://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/The%20Truth%20About%20Voter%20Fraud.pdf>on the vast majority evaporating upon closer scrutiny.  Remember the
> reports of 900 dead voters <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=27864> in South
> Carolina?  How'd that turn out<http://www.thestate.com/2013/07/13/2860754/the-buzz-sc-shocker-the-dead-are.html>?
>
>
> --
>
> Justin Levitt
>
> Associate Professor of Law
>
> Loyola Law School | Los Angeles
>
> 919 Albany St.
>
> Los Angeles, CA  90015
>
> 213-736-7417
>
> justin.levitt at lls.edu
>
> ssrn.com/author=698321
>
> On 4/2/2014 4:13 PM, Steve Hoersting wrote:
>
> National Review Online has a story re: approx 35 K instances of double
> voting in North Carolina.
>
> I'd supply a link, but this message is
>
> Sent from my phone.
>
>
>
>
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